Weekly Significant Activity Report - September 20, 2025
Russia tests NATO resolve in the Baltic and Arctic, China ratchets up trade pressure over Nvidia and TikTok, Iran fights to suppress a return of sanctions and protests
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries between September 13, 2025 - September 20, 2025.
Summary:
Russia continued to test NATO’s resolve to defend the Baltic states with incursions of Estonian airspace, while simultaneously challenging the alliance's northern defenses with extensive Arctic exercises during Zapad-2025.
China ratcheted up pressure on US trade negotiators with new scrutiny and restrictions on Nvidia products, and a framework for a TikTok deal which withholds the company’s core algorithm.
Iran suppressed a revival of the “Woman Life Freedom” protests on its third anniversary.
Iran made an unsuccessful last-minute bid to delay the snapback of UN sanctions.
New reports suggest North Korea has received Russian technology to advance its development of nuclear submarines.
1. RUSSIA TESTING LIMITS OF NATO DEFENSES IN BALTIC AND ARCTIC
Russia Puts on an Arctic Show of Force in Zapad-2025
Russia and Belarus concluded the four-day Zapad-2025 military exercises on September 16. This year’s exercises provided a showcase of Russia's ability to fight in the Arctic, particularly in the Barents Sea. The exercise’s emphasis on arctic warfare is a pivot from previous iterations of the exercise which is nominally a rehearsal for defending the Russia-Belarus union state against a NATO invasion from the west.
Zapad-2025 featured the following Arctic drills:
September 12
Amphibious landing by the Russian Northern Fleet’s Arctic expeditionary group on the Aleksandra Land Island of the Franz Josef Land Archipelago
Simulated Kinzhal strikes over the Barents Sea by Russian MiG-31K jets
September 13
Northern Fleet live-fire exercise involving Tsirkon hypersonic missile strike on a naval target in the Barents Sea
Simulated drills by the Northern Fleet to counter enemy amphibious assault in the Barents Sea
Bastion mobile coastal defense missile system (NATO designation - SS-C-5 “Stooge”) live-fire exercise on Aleksandra Land Island of the Franz Josef Land Archipelago
September 14
Northern Fleet live-fire exercise involving Tsirkon hypersonic missile strikes on naval targets in the Barents Sea coordinated by Tu-142 anti-submarine patrols
Bal Coastal Missile System (NATO designation - SSC-6 “Sennight”) live-fire exercise on naval targets in the Barents Sea
September 15
Bomber patrols over the Barents Sea involving Tu-22M3 strategic bombers
Northern Fleet airfield defense live-fire exercise involving a mix of 20 aircraft
Northern Fleet anti-submarine warfare live-fire exercise in the Barents Sea
Kalibr cruise missile live-fire exercise on a naval target involving Russia’s new Project 885M (Yasen-M) nuclear-powered submarine Arkhangelsk
September 16
Northern Fleet air defense live-fire exercise in the Barents Sea
Northern Fleet live-fire exercises involving Tsirkon hypersonic missile strike on a target over 900 km away at the Chizha training ground in Arkhangelsk
Simulated strategic bombing exercise involving Tu-160 bombers
Northern Fleet marines anti-landing live-fire exercise on the Sredny Peninsula
Lithuania Accuses Russia of 2024 Package Bombings
On September 17, Lithuania’s intelligence service officially accused Russian military intelligence (GRU) of orchestrating package bombings at DHL and DPD shipping warehouses in Europe in late 2024. The operation, involving four packages of explosives concealed in sex toys, massage pillows, and cosmetics, was a rehearsal for a larger plot to bomb cargo flights between the US and Europe.
Russian Jets Violate Estonian Airspace
On September 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighters violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes near Vaindloo Island in the Baltic Sea. The jets had no listed flight plans and had their transponders turned off. Estonia subsequently announced it would convene a meeting of top NATO leaders by invoking the organization’s Article 4 security consultations.
Takeaways:
Russia’s violations of Estonian airspace were not only a deliberate provocation but an escalation from a similar breach of Estonian airspace in the same location over Vaindloo Island by a Russian Mi-8 helicopter on September 8. Vaindloo Island, near shared airspace in the middle of the Baltic Sea, is an ideal initial testing ground for future provocations.
Russia will continue testing NATO’s responses to violations of alliance member’s sovereignty. These tests are all likely to start small and escalate if Moscow faces little push back. The 2024 package bombing plot was a similar effort to test the waters for a larger and more deadly operation. Future operations to bomb cargo flights between the US and Europe were called off after the US intervened and threatened to label Russia a state-sponsor of terrorism.
Russia’s willingness to push the limits now, evidenced not only by the breaches of Estonian airspace, but brazen drone incursions into Poland and Romania just last week, suggests it is trying to determine just how committed the Trump administration is to defending NATO allies. This suggestion has been bolstered by Bloomberg reporting this week that some Kremlin officials believe Putin has assessed that he can take greater risks under assumption that the Trump administration is uninterested in becoming involved in the war in Ukraine.
The Arctic is another area where Russia is likely to flex its muscles and test NATO resolve. The September 16 anti-landing live-fire exercise by Russian marines on the Sredny Peninsula as part of Zapad-2025 occurred within 30 km of the border with Norway. Russia has continued military exercises in the Barents Sea since the end of Zapad-2025, and may make similar probes of NATO defenses in the region in coming days.
Zapad-2025 focused so heavily on Arctic operations because Russia retains significant maritime capabilities it can deploy to the region it cannot use in Ukraine. This latent capability is enough to put on an impressive military exercise that masks Russia’s strained conventional military power. Nevertheless, the exercises highlighted that Russia maintains enough relative advantage in the Arctic to plausibly succeed in defending against a large-scale NATO attack in the region.
2. CHINA SLAMS NVIDIA WHILE DANGLING TIKTOK DEAL
China Declares Nvidia Monopoly Violation; Institutes Prohibitions on Testing and Purchasing Nvidia Chips
This week China took multiple steps to increase pressure on Nvidia. China’s State Administration for Market Regulation announced on September 15 that Nvidia had violated the country’s antitrust laws. Two days later on September 17, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) told Chinese tech companies to stop testing and purchasing Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D series chips.
China and US Agree to TikTok Deal(?)
On September 15, negotiators from the US and China announced they had agreed to a framework for resolving issues around the operation of TikTok in the US. A phone conversation on September 19 between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared to emphasize that a deal was close at hand.
The exact details of the US TikTok deal are still murky as both sides have given vague and somewhat conflicting interpretations of key features of the deal. Chinese state media suggests the following are key points of the draft framework:
China will allow the US to spin off a separate TikTok company which will store user data, manage intellectual property and perform content moderation.
US will ease restrictions on access to American products and services for other Chinese companies in exchange.
China will maintain TikTok’s core algorithm and license it to the US.
The first point on forming a new company owned by US investors is currently the most fleshed-out part of the deal. Currently, a set of US investors including Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz and Silver Lake Management LLC are preparing to enter into a joint venture to take 80% ownership of the new company. TikTok’s parent company ByteDance and other potential Chinese investors will retain a 20% stake in the new US company. Six of the seven board seats of the new company will be controlled by American investors.
The second point of the deal, suggests that the sale of TikTok is tied to broader trade negotiations with the US with details forthcoming.
The final point on control of TikTok’s algorithm remains a significant point of contention. On September 20, the White House seemed to contradict China’s licensing claims by asserting that the US will have full control of the TikTok algorithm.
Takeaways:
First and foremost: neither the TikTok deal, nor the Nvidia ban appear to be final. The US should expect China to continue to draw out negotiations on both issues and position itself for greater advantage.
China has good reason to continue negotiations—it has the upper hand. An overeagerness by US officials and business leaders to secure an agreement on both issues has given China superior leverage it can continue to exploit for better terms.
On Nvidia:
Nvidia has shown great interest in doing business in China. CEO Jensen Huang has been waging a major lobbying effort in recent months aimed at both the US and Chinese governments to increase Nvidia sales to the country. On July 17, Huang met with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao where he praised China’s advancements in AI. He echoed the message days later at the China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing, where he signed autographs and called China’s AI open-source models like DeepSeek a “catalyst for global progress”. In addition to publicly praising China, Huang has also told US investors and officials that selling advanced AI chips in China is a “$50B opportunity” that Nvidia must access in order to remain competitive.
US officials have also explicitly expressed a desire to increase China’s reliance on Nvidia’s products and services. On July 15, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick declared that it was the US policy to give China second-rate semiconductors and to keep them dependent on US technology, “We don’t sell them our best stuff, not our second best stuff, not even our third best… The fourth one down, we want to keep China using it. We want to keep having the Chinese use the American technology stack, because they still rely upon it.” These remarks were not only unwise for their flippant tone, but because they revealed a need for the US technology companies to access Chinese markets to remain competitive.
China has repeatedly exploited this demand for market access to get the White House to agree to reduce restrictions on Nvidia’s most advanced chips. The White House has already lifted curbs on Nvidia’s H20 chips, and floated a permission for an export-ready version of its most advanced Blackwell chips. In both instances the easing of US policy was followed by increased scrutiny of Nvidia by Beijing. Viewed in this context, Beijing’s recent moves to restrict Nvidia’s Chinese sales appear to be a means of extracting greater access to the company’s most advanced technology and to more broadly pressure for concessions from the US on other trade issues—including TikTok.
On TikTok:
President Donald Trump has similarly shown an intense interest in making a deal to salvage TikTok’s US operations. Trump made saving TikTok a component of his 2024 election campaign, announcing on Truth Social two months before the election “FOR ALL OF THOSE THAT WANT TO SAVE TIK TOK IN AMERICA, VOTE TRUMP!” Since taking office President Trump has ignored federal law and extended the deadline for TikTok’s sale to an American company four times since its original date of January 19, 2025.
As with Nvidia, maximum US demand has given Beijing leverage to extract maximum concessions in negotiations over TikTok. Chinese officials and state media have remained deliberately vague about the deal's current status, while Beijing has notably refused to confirm President Trump's assertion that Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the arrangement. The framework for the deal provides ample opportunity for Chinese negotiators to raise issues over final details for weeks to come, creating mounting pressure on US officials from both investors and the public.
On September 19, just days after Beijing imposed a ban on Nvidia chips, Huawei announced it will soon release what it claims will be the world’s most advanced AI computing network, the “Atlas 950 SuperCluster.”
The claims of a coming breakthrough at an unspecified date in the next year are likely exaggerated and appear to be a move by Huawei to position itself to fill future domestic demand for advanced semiconductors in the event of an outright ban on Nvidia chips. Even if accurate, replacing Nvidia chips with those of Huawei is an extremely complex process. The immense switching costs stem from the transitioning from the market dominant CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) programming ecosystem developed over two decades by Nvidia to the CANN (Compute Architecture for Neural Networks) system of Huawei. These challenges are discussed in greater detail in OPFOR Journal’s Weekly Significant Activity Report - September 13, 2025.
3. IRAN CRACKS DOWN ON PROTESTS AMID 3RD ANNIVERSARY OF THE “WOMAN LIFE FREEDOM” MOVEMENT
Third Anniversary of the Woman Life Freedom Protests
This week marked the third anniversary of the death of Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini at the hands of the Iranian regime’s morality police on September 16, 2022. Amini’s death sparked the massive “Woman Life Freedom” protests that demanded an end to the country’s morality police and challenged the legitimacy of the Iranian regime.
Iran Harasses Potential Protest Organizers
Iran took numerous steps this week to prevent the revival of the protests, including preventing the family of Mahsa Amini from holding a memorial on the third anniversary of her death. IranWire reported that Iranian security forces also contacted and intimidated several Kurdish women activists. Security forces similarly harassed the families of victims killed during the 2022 protests.
Takeaways:
The Woman Life Freedom Protests of 2022 were a significant grassroots challenge to the future of the Iranian Revolution. Since then, some polling suggests that the protest’s aim of replacing Iran’s theocratic regime enjoys widespread public approval. For this reason Tehran continues to persecute individuals and groups associated with the protests in order to prevent its revival. This year’s preemptive crackdown on protests stems from this broader three-year campaign.
This year’s anniversary of the recent protests was particularly perilous as the Iranian regime appears especially vulnerable. Iran has had its Middle East alliances completely upended in recent years and Israeli decapitating strikes during the 12-Day War highlighted disarray in the Iranian security apparatus. The impending return of the UN sanctions regime threatens to generate popular discontent over deteriorating economic conditions.
The limited protests on this year’s anniversary suggests the repression has succeeded thus far in preventing protest groups from organizing. But this does not necessarily portend long-term stability. Public discontent with the regime still remains and activists are likely biding their time to use the coming succession of the now 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the next best opportunity to challenge the regime.
4. IRAN MAKES FINAL BID TO STOP EUROPEAN SANCTIONS SNAPBACK
China and Russia Back Iranian Resolution for Protection In Exchange for Inspections
This week, Iran pitched a resolution to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to “uphold” the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty’s provisions allowing peaceful civilian nuclear programs. The resolution, backed by China, Russia, Belarus, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, would explicitly prohibit attacks on nuclear sites being inspected by the IAEA.
UN Security Council Vote to Delay Sanctions Snapback Fails
On September 19, the UN Security Council vote on a draft resolution to extend the UN-brokered sanctions relief under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) failed to pass. The resolution received only four supporting votes from Russia, China, Pakistan and Algeria, along with two abstentions (Guyana, South Korea), against nine opposing votes (US, UK, Denmark, France, Greece, Panama, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Somalia). The vote was part of a process triggered last month when the three European signatories to the JCPOA—Germany, France, and the UK—announced they had initiated the sanctions snapback mechanism to the deal for significant breaches in compliance.
Takeaways:
As of right now Iran is only cooperating with the IAEA at the Bushehr nuclear power plant which, as a light water reactor, is unlikely to be used as part of any Iranian nuclear weapons program. The resolution proposed by Iran, China, Russia, and other allies at the IAEA appears designed to offer a further restoration of inspections at other nuclear sites as leverage for prolonging negotiations. This strategy likely aims to create divisions between the US and European signatories to the JCPOA by demonstrating incremental diplomatic progress, which postpones renewed Western sanctions and complicates further US-Israeli strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities.
The failed UN Security Council vote to delay the return of sanctions on September 19 shows that Iran’s current strategy is not succeeding.
5. NORTH KOREA BUILDING NUCLEAR SUBS WITH RUSSIAN HELP
On September 17, South Korean news outlet JoongAng Ilbo reported that sources within the South Korean military believe that Russia has provided North Korea with key technology needed to construct nuclear submarines. The technology transfer included as many as three reactor modules, as well as turbine and cooling systems taken from decommissioned Russian submarines.
Takeaways:
This reporting, which is still being investigated by Seoul, is entirely plausible. South Korea, Ukraine, and the US have already identified several other cases of known or suspected transfers of Russian military technology to North Korea. These include transfers of advanced air-to-air missiles and Pantsir Air Defense Systems, and assistance in building out capabilities for the North Korean Navy’s newest 5,000-ton, Choe Hyon class destroyer.
The transfer of components for a nuclear submarine would be a significant escalation from its previous technology transfers but would fit within what appears to be the Kremlin’s model for defense cooperation with North Korea. In this model Russia provides more advanced systems than North Korea possesses, but systems which are nonetheless relics of the Cold War-era.
Another technology transfer which may fit within this framework for cooperation is multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs). MIRVs are a system for delivering multiple nuclear warheads to multiple targets on a single missile. North Korea has been seeking Russia’s assistance in developing MIRVs.1
See Weekly Significant Activity Report - September 13, 2025 for more information about the significance of MIRVs on North Korea’s nuclear strategy.