Weekly Significant Activity Report - May 31, 2025
China flexes its muscles at sea, Russia chooses conquest over US peace proposals, Russian nuclear secrets exposed, North Korea and China all in on Russia's war
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries from May 24 - May 31, 2025
Summary
China is stepping up its naval activities and other influence campaigns to dominate the East China Sea and Yellow Sea. This is an attempt to loosen the grip of the US and its allies on a crucial chain of islands in the Pacific.
Russia continues to reject US efforts to broker an end to its war in Ukraine. Signals from the Kremlin, along with new reports on systematic brutality toward Ukrainian civilians and prisoners, emphasize that Russia’s main war aim is the subjugation of the Ukrainian people rather than resisting NATO expansion.
Russian nuclear secrets are exposed in an unprecedented leak.
New reporting suggests North Korea and China are all in on support for Russia’s war effort.
1. CHINA ANTAGONIZES US ALLIES AT SEA
China Conducts Carrier Group Exercises in between Taiwan and Japan’s Southern Islands
This week a task force of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier and an accompaniment of two destroyers and two frigates, sailed through the Miyako Strait into the Western Pacific Ocean. The Miyako Strait is a waterway between the southern islands of Japan and Taiwan. The PLA Navy task force has been conducting military training exercises ranging from the East China Sea to the open ocean east of Taiwan.
China Calls Japanese Territorial Claims Invalid
This week China revived claims that Japan’s rights to Okinotorishima Island are not valid under international law. China has referred to the archipelago as Okinotori Reef and has declared it to be an underwater terrain feature that cannot be counted as part of Japan’s territory.
China Imposes Restrictions on Navigation in South Korea’s Territorial Waters
South Korea’s Foreign Ministry launched a diplomatic protest against China over recent moves to establish a “no-sail zone” in territorial waters shared by both countries in the Yellow Sea. The shared waters, established as a Provisional Measures Zone (PMZ) in 2000, allow both countries to conduct free transit, economic activities and military exercises in coordination with each other. South Korea has alleged that the new restrictions, in three areas where China has recently installed large man-made structures, illegally restrict freedom of navigation.
China Conducts Show of Force in the South China Sea
Recent satellite photos suggest that China has stationed H-6 strategic bombers, its most advanced bomber aircraft, along with KJ-500 early warning radar aircraft on military bases in the Paracel Islands. The Paracels are a series of partially submerged archipelagos in the South China Sea, which China has transformed into military outposts with massive land reclamation operations. Vietnam and Taiwan also claim parts of the Paracel Islands.
Background map source: Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 2012)
Takeaways:
China’s recent moves against South Korean and Japanese territorial interests indicate that it is expanding the united front operations it used to assert primacy in the South China Sea into the East China Sea and Yellow Sea.
According to this playbook, China will first seek to delegitimize its neighbors’ claims to territory in their Exclusive Economic Zone. After declaring the disputed areas to be international waters open to all, China will then flood the territory with civilian research and fishing vessels to establish a dominant presence. De facto Chinese control will be enforced by a combination of coast guard and maritime militia fleets. China will then improve upon surrounding reefs or archipelagos to create militarized strongpoints that cement Chinese ownership of the region.
Establishing control of the territorial waters of the East China Sea and Yellow Sea through incremental expansion of strongpoints is part of a Chinese effort to weaken the US-led alliance by compromising its hold on the strategically important “first island chain.” The first island chain is a string of territories extending from Japan southwest to Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia that encloses the Chinese mainland with the South and East China Seas. Control of the first island chain allows the US to contain Chinese naval activity close to its shores, project its own power in the Indo-Pacific, and defend allied territory.
2. RUSSIA DOWNPLAYS PROSPECT OF PEACE IN FAVOR OF ESCALATION, BEGINS TO TURN ON TRUMP
Russia Launches Largest Ever Multi-day Air Assault on Kyiv
This week Russia launched three days of long-range air strikes on major Ukrainian cities. The attacks, featuring hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles, formed the largest air assault of the war. The attacks provoked an angry response from US President Donald Trump, who had days earlier proclaimed progress toward achieving a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine. President Trump declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin had “gone absolutely CRAZY” and was “playing with fire.” Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions and other consequences on Russia if it did not demonstrate a commitment to peace.
Russian Mouthpieces Lash Out After Trump Criticism
Russian state media and Kremlin officials responded to President Trump’s recent warnings with a combination of mockery and disdain. The Kremlin’s official response from spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested that Trump’s criticism stemmed from an “emotional overload.” Other senior Russian figures followed up to harass the US President.
Source: @RT.com @MedvedevRussiaE on X
Kremlin Demands Written Guarantees Prohibiting NATO Expansion for an End to War
Reuters reports that one of the top conditions Russia is expected to demand as part of any long-term peace deal with Ukraine is a written pledge by NATO that the alliance will cease expanding eastward. Such an agreement would nullify future membership aspirations for Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.
Kremlin Demands End to Ukrainian Military Assistance in Exchange for Ceasefire
During a May 29 meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia's permanent representative Vasily Nebenzya stated that a ceasefire in Ukraine is possible only after Western military assistance and Ukrainian military mobilization has ended. Such an agreement would put Ukraine at a significant strategic disadvantage in the event of a resumption of hostilities and thus subsequently reduce Ukraine’s negotiating position.
Takeaways:
The Kremlin has spent years deliberately stoking Russian nationalism to mobilize the country for aggressive action against its adversaries. The war in Ukraine has brought militant nationalism to a fever pitch by allowing the state to completely suppress dissent and elevate pro-war and anti-Western voices in the country. Making expansionist war and internal repression to counter “Russophobia” the raison d'être of the Russian state has made it nearly impossible for the Kremlin to appear to compromise on its maximalist military objectives. These objectives are the subjugation of Ukraine and the rolling back of Western influence in Eastern Europe and Eurasia.
We should expect that the Russian state will reject rapprochement with the Trump administration in exchange for substantive compromises on its military objectives in Ukraine. It will also react harshly to any perceived criticism from the new administration’s officials. The Kremlin will risk losing opportunities to repair ties with the US, to prevent the appearance of selling out its now core constituency of ultranationalists.
Any perceived concessions from the Kremlin in US-led talks should be seen as part of an effort to position Russia at a decisive advantage for a resumption of hostilities. Russia will pursue a halt to military assistance to Ukraine with proposals for a reciprocal ceasefire and potentially offer to forgo additional territory claims. The intention of these overtures is to create the conditions to eventually secure those territories in the future when support for the Ukrainian military is less robust.
The Kremlin will continue to use concerns over NATO expansion as a wedge issue to divide the transatlantic alliance, stoke isolationist sentiment in the US, and distract from its ultimate ambition of territorial expansion.
Any agreement exchanging cessation of NATO membership for a permanent peace in Eastern Europe will be more closely observed by the West than by Russia. Under Putin, Russia has repeatedly violated treaties governing European security and arms control. Russia’s 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukrainian territory were each clear violations of preceding treaties that secured the country’s sovereignty. The Kremlin will find the necessary pretext to violate its obligations under any agreement while promoting subsequent reprisals as evidence of duplicity by the West. It will appeal to divisions within the Western coalition to ensure that NATO remains stationary while it continues efforts to carve out a permanent hold on unaffiliated countries within Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus region.
3. NEW REPORTS HIGHLIGHT ELIMINATIONIST GOALS OF RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE
Hundreds of Ukrainian Prisoners of War (POWs) Have Died in Russian Captivity
A new report by the Associated Press documented the deaths of at least 200 Ukrainian POWs in Russian prison camps. The bodies returned to Ukraine often listed natural causes as the reason for their deaths. Autopsies conducted after their return, along with testimony from surviving POWs suggest the deaths were instead caused by torture and deprivation of medical care.
Russia Hunting Ukrainian Civilians for Sport in Kherson “Drone Safaris”
On May 28, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) released a report concluding that Russia has spent over ten months deliberately hunting down and killing Ukrainian civilians in Kherson with drones. The attacks, dubbed “drone safaris,” have resulted in at least 150 deaths and hundreds of injuries and amount to crimes against humanity. The UNHRC has alleged that these attacks are well-organized, and are often recorded and published in flashy videos on Russian social media platforms for entertainment.
Takeaways:
The new reports are the latest evidence that Russia is pursuing its war to subjugate the Ukrainian people rather than, as it often alleges, to defend itself against Western military encroachment. Previous UN reports have determined that nearly all released Ukrainian POWs were tortured and as many as half were sexually assaulted while in Russian captivity.
4. WESTERN PRESS OBTAINS MASSIVE TROVE OF SECRET RUSSIAN NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS
Danish investigative journalist outlet Danwatch and German newspaper Der Spiegel published an analysis of more than two million documents they obtained on Russia’s nuclear modernization. The documents included hundreds of sensitive site blueprints and procurement plans for Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces. Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, composed of 50,000 soldiers across 12 divisions, control 900 nuclear warheads and the country’s inventory of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Takeaways:
The nuclear modernization plans are an immense source of information that defense and intelligence agencies in the West can use to assess Russia’s current nuclear capabilities. The blueprints provide precise targeting data on Russian facilities. Russia will have to either update these facilities at great cost or assume long-term operational risks.
The leaked documents are arguably most significant for what they reveal about Russia’s ability to protect its most closely guarded secrets. A leak of such a magnitude illustrates serious, possibly systemic, problems with Russia’s information security systems and counterintelligence operations. Russia’s enemies, especially Ukraine, will likely see this vulnerability as an opportunity to probe for new sources of intelligence in computer networks and among disaffected Russian state employees.
5. CHINA AND NORTH KOREA ENGAGED IN MASSIVE, GROWING EFFORT TO SUPPORT RUSSIAN WAR EFFORT
Ukraine Says China is Providing Key Material Support to Russia’s Arms Industry
This week Ukraine’s head of foreign intelligence, Oleh Ivashchenko, stated that China has provided decisive support for Russia’s production of weapons and military equipment. Ivashchenko claimed that up to 80% of electronic components in recovered Russian drones were of Chinese origin and that China had also provided Russia with key chemical precursors for the manufacture of explosives.
China Cuts off Ukraine From Drones, Continues Sales to Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has alleged that China has suspended the sales of DJI Mavic drones bound for the country. President Zelensky further asserted that China not only continues selling the drones to Russia but has Chinese manufacturers in the country helping to scale production. Small commercial drones like those produced by DJI Mavic have been adapted as key weapons and surveillance systems by both sides in the war.
North Korea Provided Millions of Artillery Shells to Russia in 2024
A new report, by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), composed of researchers from 11 Western countries, estimates that North Korea provided as many as nine million artillery shells to Russia in 2024.1 The shells along with at least 100 ballistic missiles, 200 artillery systems, and other equipment were transported to Russia by sea and rail in over 20,000 shipping containers since September 2023.
Key Chinese and North Korean Officials Visit Russia for Security Talks
This week senior Chinese Politburo member Chen Wenqing visited Russia to discuss security cooperation. The visit overlapped with that of North Korea’s Minister of State Security Ri Chang Dae. Both countries’ delegations were in Moscow for the 13th International Meeting of High Representatives for Security Issues.
Takeaways:
This week’s accusations of Chinese support for Russia by Ukraine are the latest in an emerging campaign by Kyiv to focus international pressure on China for its role in prolonging the war. China has long claimed neutrality in the conflict, but publicly embraces Russia as a “no-limits” strategic partner. In early April, Ukraine accused Beijing of permitting the recruitment of Chinese citizens into the Russian army after Chinese nationals were taken prisoner by the Ukrainian military.
Ukraine’s turn against Beijing represents a notable shift in the country's previous pragmatic embrace of China as a key diplomatic and economic partner. It is likely a strategy to rally additional support from East Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, dissuade the European Union from more deeply embracing China as a partner, and focus the Trump administration’s China hawks on the threat posed by Sino-Russian cooperation.
China has dismissed Kyiv’s accusations as “groundless,” but there is ample evidence to suggest that the country is effectively backstopping the Russian war effort.
While bothered by criticism, China is unlikely to be pressured into reducing its support for Russia. The war has little downside for China as it strains the US-led global order, and makes Russia’s abundant natural resources more available for the Chinese economy. Only the prospect of a significant rupture in China-EU relations could make China rethink its current strategy. Such a break still seems unlikely despite warnings this week by France’s President Emmanuel Macron that China must force North Korea to end its involvement in the war or risk an expansion of European security ties in Asia. Recent tariffs and threats by the US have placed Europe in an unwanted security dilemma that has prompted a balancing of ties with China to resist coercion.
North Korea’s supplies of artillery to Russia far exceed those of the West for Ukraine. Ukraine anticipates receiving only three million artillery shells in 2025. China’s recent moves to restrict commercial drones to Ukraine suggest an attempt to create a similar asymmetry of supply that advantages Moscow. Artillery and small drones have been the key battlefield weapon systems for both sides in the war.
MSMT members are Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Korea, the UK, and the US
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