Weekly Significant Activity Report - November 22, 2025
This week’s analysis highlights some of the most significant geopolitical developments involving America’s adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—between November 15 - November 22, 2025.
Summary:
A 28-point Ukraine peace plan heavily favoring Russian demands was leaked to US media outlet Axios on November 18 and subsequently endorsed by the White House. The plan is currently unfeasible and likely to be rejected by both Ukraine and Russia. Evidence suggests Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev leaked the proposal as part of complex diplomatic maneuvers to advance Russia’s position and his own personal interests.
Russian spy ship Yantar is patrolling off the coast of the British Isles as part of a Russian effort to collect intelligence on undersea cables and intimidate the UK.
A new report by the Washington Post has detailed a significant multi-year expansion of China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site, suggesting that Beijing may be engaging in more extensive nuclear testing than it currently acknowledges.
The feud between China and Japan has intensified with little sign of stopping. China’s continued escalation has validated Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s initial warnings about Chinese aggression threatening Japanese sovereignty, making it difficult for Tokyo to back down.
Iran continues to defy international pressure to constrain its nuclear program, with new developments at its Taleghan 2 site and renewed disputes with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
1. NEW PEACE PLAN PITCHED BY THE US AND RUSSIAN ENVOYS
On November 18, Axios reported details of a new 28-point framework for ending the war in Ukraine organized by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev. The leaked plan came as a surprise to European and Ukrainian leaders, as well as members of the US Congress. Full details of the plan were later released in full by the White House and are annotated in a footnote below.1
Key details of the plan echo many of Russia’s maximalist demands. These include Ukraine’s withdrawal from territory it currently occupies in Donetsk oblast, the amendment of Ukraine’s constitution to ensure it will not seek NATO membership, caps on the size and capabilities of Ukraine’s armed forces, and a requirement that Ukraine hold elections within 100 days of the end of the war.
US President Donald Trump warned that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has until November 27 to agree to pursue the plan or face a loss of US military and diplomatic support.
Takeaways:
Overall:
As many observers have noted, this is a dangerous and unworkable plan that overwhelmingly favors Russian interests.
It also incentivizes further Russian aggression against both Ukraine and other European nations by calling into question the broader European security architecture. The plan’s characterization of the US as a neutral intermediary between Russia and NATO, is a dangerous ambiguity that weakens existing collective security guarantees and casts doubt on future assurances for Ukraine.
The plan also contains inexplicable rent-seeking clauses which will inflame corruption in the US, Russia, and Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government will not be able to accept the current plan due to unendurable infringements on its sovereignty even at the risk of losing US support.
European nations will also not accept infringements on their own interests developed in the plan without its consultation, such as its unfreezing of hundreds of billions of euros of Russian assets.
On Russia’s Problems With the Plan
The plan is ultimately unworkable because the Kremlin won’t accept its present terms either. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already suggested the current plan would need to be amended. Putin stated on November 21 that Russia had only just received the plan and would need to study and develop it further:
“We have this document. We received it through existing channels of communication with the American administration. I believe that it, too, could serve as the basis for a final peace settlement. But it has not been discussed with us in any substantive way. And I can guess why. The reason, I believe, is the same — the U.S. administration has so far failed to secure Ukraine’s approval. Ukraine is against it.”
The plan contains elements that the Kremlin will not agree to. These include having developments in Ukraine subjected to the scrutiny of a “Peace Council” headed by a US President; surrendering $100B in frozen assets to fund Ukrainian reconstruction; and allowing the Ukrainian military to contain up to 600,000 troops—a far larger and more powerful force than at the start of the war.
Compromises on these issues negate both the initial goal of Russia’s special military operation to demilitarize Ukraine and would permanently marginalize Moscow’s influence in Ukraine. While the deal contains many favorable concessions to Russia, it ultimately positions the country as a regional power under the supervision of the US, a condition the Kremlin cannot accept without offending Russian nationalists.
The Kremlin is especially unlikely to compromise on these issues when it perceives it has an upper hand in the battle for the Donbas and senses political instability within Ukraine resulting from the fallout of the country’s high-profile political corruption scandal.
On the Release of the “Peace Plan”
Many observers have suggested the release of the peace plan is an opportunist effort by the White House to bully Ukraine into an unfavorable end to the war at a time of great vulnerability caused by a worsening battlefield situation near Pokrovsk and a high-level corruption scandal. While these circumstances are plausible, other details more strongly suggest the plan was released as part of a disinformation effort by factions within the Kremlin led by Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
Senior US officials have reported that they believe Kirill Dmitriev, the only person quoted by name in the Axios story, leaked the plan in order to throw the US information environment into disarray at a vulnerable moment for Ukraine. Steve Witkoff appeared to inadvertently confirm this suspicion when he mistakenly retweeted “He must have got this from K.” in response to a link of the Axios story posted by co-author Barak Ravid. The message, which implies that Kirill Dmitriev is “K”, was apparently intended as a direct message and was quickly deleted.
Investigative journalist Michael Weiss has noted that details in the Axios story on the drafting of the peace plan appear to contain factual errors that were likely sourced directly from Dmitriev.
This raises the question of why Russia would promote a peace plan it would not approve in the first place. A likely explanation is that Kirill Dmitriev is acting on his own initiative. Dmitriev is a Western-educated financier who has cultivated relationships with Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and other members of President Trump’s inner circle over the past year. This combination of insights into American court politics and the Western media environment may have led him to seize an opportunity to pitch the story at a moment of mounting domestic troubles for President Trump, when the press is looking for more derogatory stories about the President and the President is eager to divert attention from escalating domestic scandals that have fractured his political base.
Dmitriev may have taken a risk to demonstrate results that boost his influence amid an intensifying competition with establishment Kremlin figures such as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and long-time Putin aide Yuri Ushakov, a competition previously discussed in Weekly Significant Activity Report - November 8, 2025.
The controversy erupting from the story and the Trump administration’s initial willingness to embrace the plan suggest the risky move may pay off. Nevertheless, there has also been a backlash to the plan in Russia among hardline officials. First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Alexei Zhuravlev, notably declared the plan a provocation designed to strengthen America’s strategic position and demanded that the Kremlin reject it, stating in a November 21 Telegram post:
“It would be strange to equate the plan presented by the United States with Russia’s demands. Any agreements proposed by the US or the EU will never lead to sustainable peace.
“The conflict can be resolved fully and completely only in the case of our unequivocal Victory on the front and Ukrainian capitulation. The Russian army is currently working quite successfully on this. Any other outcome will only postpone the confrontation. The American idea is to keep Ukraine as a deterrent factor against Russia. Even reduced territorially and militarily, it will still pose a significant threat to us, and an army will have to be kept on the western borders.
“This way, the US will have free hands for the upcoming confrontation with China. I hope that the Russian side will not agree to such provocations, no matter how much US representatives try to portray the signing of such a treaty as being in our interests.”
2. RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE SHIP SURVEILLING THE UK
On November 19, British Defence Secretary John Healey announced that the Yantar, a Russian Project 22010 class oceanic research vessel, which has been loitering off the British coast since early November, has begun directing high-powered optical lasers at Royal Air Force aircraft monitoring its movements.
Yantar is a Russian intelligence vessel. According to the UK’s Defence Ministry, Russia has used the Yantar to map undersea cables and deploy underwater sensors.
Takeaways:
The Yantar was previously spotted near the British Isles in January 2025. Its presence then and now is twofold, conducting reconnaissance on the UK’s underwater critical infrastructure such as undersea cables, and as a form of coercive signaling.
A similar Russian intelligence ship, the Navy Auxiliary General Intelligence ship Kareliya was spotted 15 miles off the coast of Oahu, Hawaii on October 29.
This is not the first time OPFOR naval vessels have harassed western aircraft with lasers this year. In July, a Chinese warship operating in the Red Sea targeted a German P-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft with a high-powered laser. The German aircraft was conducting reconnaissance of Houthi military activities as part of Operation Aspides to protect shipping from attacks from the group in the Red Sea.
3. CHINA EXPANDING ITS NUCLEAR TEST SITE IN XINJIANG
On November 17, The Washington Post reported that China has been quietly expanding its Lop Nur nuclear test site since 2020. Lop Nur in the western province of Xinjiang is the site of China’s first nuclear weapons tests. Satellite images show the development of new support and research facilities at the site as well as new roads, tunnels, and at least two new bore holes for possible use in underground testing.
Takeaways:
Increased development at Lop Nur does not come as a total surprise. NPR covered the development of new tunnels at the site in 2021, and The New York Times detailed the drilling of new test shaft bore holes in December 2023. Numerous academic journals and think tanks have similarly documented the expansion of the site.
What is significant is how the development contextualizes recent statements by President Donald Trump about renewed US testing. Trump’s remarks that the US must conduct nuclear tests on an “equal basis” with Russia and China imply that the US has reasonable suspicion that China is conducting more intensive forms of nuclear testing than the US has allowed. The drilling of underground test shafts further suggests that China may even be conducting higher yield nuclear tests than Russia, whose own testing is suspected of violating the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
China may feel it necessary to more aggressively test its nuclear weapons to catch up with the US and Russia. Gregory Kulacki of the Union of Concerned Scientists, notes that China has only conducted 45 explosive nuclear tests while the US has conducted 1,030 and Russia (as both the Russian Federation and the Soviet Union) conducted 715. This more limited testing means Beijing possesses significantly less empirical data for the performance of its weapons than other major nuclear powers. This creates a strategic disadvantage that China may seek to overcome in order to establish its credibility as a nuclear superpower.
4. CHINA INCREASING PRESSURE ON JAPAN AMID ROW OVER PM TAKAICHI’S TAIWAN COMMENTS
China Coast Guard Patrols Near Disputed Islands
On November 16 the China Coast Guard announced that it had conducted a patrol near the disputed Senkaku Islands.
China Reimposes Ban on Japanese Seafood
NHK reports that Chinese officials have informed the Japanese government that China will reinstate a ban on Japanese seafood. China had previously banned Japanese seafood in August 2023 after the release of treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The ban had been mostly lifted earlier this year.
China Takes Its Protest Against Japan to the UN
China’s permanent representative to the UN Fu Cong announced before the General Assembly on November 19 that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Japanese intervention in a war over Taiwan threaten the international order and make the country “totally unqualified” to receive a permanent seat on the Security Council.
Takeaways:
The continued feud between China and Japan shows little sign of abating due to a self-reinforcing spiral of escalation. The bombastic Chinese reaction to PM Takaichi’s remarks, which notably included China’s Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, threatening to behead the Prime Minister, has only reinforced Japanese concerns about future Chinese aggression. Japan’s subsequent refusal to back down in the face of these threats has further incensed Chinese officials.
The Chinese Coast Guard patrol near the disputed islands is highly provocative. China and Japan have engaged in a heated, multi-decade dispute over the strategically situated Senkaku Islands (which China calls the Diaoyu Islands). Provocations near the islands risk spiraling into regional conflict, as the US, which is officially neutral on the competing historical claims, recognizes their administration by Tokyo and has committed to defending the islands under its obligations to protect Japanese sovereignty.
5. IRAN DEFYING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE TO ADVANCE ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM
New Construction Observed at Historic Iranian Nuclear Site
A new report by the Institute for Science and International Security has shown increased construction at the Taleghan 2 site between September and early November. The Institute previously reported in October that Iran had resumed construction on the site shortly before the 12-Day War. The new construction is indicative of plans to house explosive materials. The Taleghan 2 site was part of Iran’s secret AMAD project to develop nuclear weapons in the 1990s and early 2000s.
The IAEA Censures Iran for Noncompliance with UN Resolutions
On November 20, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed a resolution censuring Iran for continuing to violate UN Security Council resolutions on its nuclear research and for rebuffing the organization’s efforts to inspect and account for the country’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Says Deal with IAEA is Dead
In response to the IAEA resolution, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on November 20 that the Cairo Memorandum, which restarted limited cooperation between Iran and the IAEA, is no longer valid.
Iran Considering Response to IAEA Condemnation Including Withdrawing from the NPT
This week members of the Iranian Parliament have stated that the body is considering a number of responses to this week’s censure by the IAEA, with a draft bill expected as soon as next week. Amir Hayat-Moghaddam, an official on the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has suggested one of the responses could include a motion to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
Takeaways:
The report by the Institute for Science and International Security noted that a progression of images of the Taleghan 2 site since May suggests Iran has been trying to conceal elements of the interior of the buildings being constructed. New structural features visible in the latest imagery from September through November suggest the concealed element is a containment vessel for testing explosive materials used in nuclear weapons.
The struggle between Tehran and the IAEA has been ongoing for months. Tehran appears to be using cooperation with the organization as leverage to maintain diplomatic engagement with the European signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It has also used the IAEA as a convenient scapegoat to deflect public anger for the fallout of the 12-Day War and the return of sanctions.
Iran continues to closely guard its estimated 400kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. The IAEA has previously warned this stockpile far exceeds any amount needed for peaceful purposes and could be rapidly weaponized into as many as 10 nuclear bombs. Tehran likely views its highly enriched uranium inventory as leverage it needs to resist even worse pressure by the West than it faces now. By remaining on the threshold of developing nuclear weapons, Iran can assert its status as a great power and create incentives for more favorable diplomatic negotiations with the West. While its suspicious activities regarding the stockpile may have played a key role in spurring the 12-Day War, the Iranian regime likely fears that IAEA inspections would help the US and Israel target these materials in a future conflict. Surrendering the stockpile or having it destroyed would leave Iran with even less bargaining power.
Iran has similarly threatened to withdraw from the NPT on numerous occasions this year. Russia and China, which have continuously backed Iran in its disputes with the IAEA are unlikely to support any Iranian exit from the NPT. Exiting the NPT could incentivize further nuclear proliferation in Eurasia which would pose a long-term security threat to both countries.
Full Plan Details According to Axios:
“1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
“2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
“3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.
“4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
“5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
“6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
“7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
“8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
“9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
“10. The U.S. guarantee:
The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee;
If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee;
If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked;
If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.
“11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
“12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence.
The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas.
Infrastructure development.
Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
“13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
“14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:
$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
“15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
“16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
“17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
“18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
“19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.
“20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:
Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. (Note: Similar ideas were incorporated into Trump’s 2020 Israel-Palestine peace plan).
All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.
“21. Territories:
Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
“22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
“23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
“24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:
All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis.
All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.
A family reunification program will be implemented.
Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.
“25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
“26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
“27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
“28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.”