Weekly Significant Activity Report - June 7, 2025
Russia rejects ceasefire after Ukrainian "terrorist" attacks, China expands its naval operations in the Indo-Pacific, China and North Korea bolster Moscow and Tehran's military capabilities.
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries between May 31 - June 7, 2025.
Summary
Ukraine's "Operation Spider Web" and Kerch Bridge attack compel Russia to downplay damage, reject ceasefire talks, issue extreme demands, and brand Ukrainian military actions as terrorism.
North Korea publicly reaffirms its alliance with Russia, while China quietly boosts the capabilities of the Russian and Iranian militaries.
China’s naval operations extend deeper into the Western Pacific Ocean, are larger than previously known.
Beijing and Tehran amplify nationalism and foreign threats during a week of consequential anniversaries.
1. RUSSIA DOWNPLAYS UKRAINIAN ATTACKS, HARDENS POSITION ON PEACE WITH “TERRORISTS” IN KYIV
Ukraine Launches Strikes on Russian Air Bases in “Operation Spider Web”
On June 1, Ukraine launched “Operation Spider Web” a secretly planned campaign of drone strikes targeting four air bases deep in Russian territory. OPFOR Journal covered these attacks this week in a special Situation Report.
Russian officials and state media have since attempted to downplay the attacks to save face. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov reassured the public, “As the defense ministry said, these aircraft were not destroyed but damaged. They will be repaired.”
Kerch Bridge Damaged in an Underwater Ukrainian Attack
Two days after its Operation Spider Web success, Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) launched a clandestine bombing of the Kerch Bridge connecting the Russian mainland with Crimea. The attack, which involved over 1,100 kg of explosives attached to underwater support piers, temporarily rendered the bridge inoperable.
Russian Memorandum for Peace Talks Outlines Increased Demands for Ukraine and its Partners
On June 2, Russia provided Ukraine with a memorandum outlining its demands for a ceasefire. The memorandum’s conditions included: the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from territories Russia claims but does not occupy; demobilization of Ukraine’s military and an end to martial law; permanent neutrality for Ukraine; elections for new Ukrainian leaders; permanent restrictions on the Ukrainian military; and the dissolution of nationalist groups and symbols. The memorandum also makes demands of the international community, including the recognition of Russia’s annexations, and an end to foreign assistance to Ukraine.
Putin Says Ceasefire With Ukraine Not Possible
Putin has ruled out a ceasefire with Ukraine following its string of successful attacks on Russian air bases and critical infrastructure. In a rambling video call with members of government, Putin compared Ukrainian operations to terrorist attacks.
“Today, against the backdrop of huge losses, retreating along the entire line of combat contact, trying to intimidate Russia, the Kiev leadership has moved on to organizing terrorist acts. And at the same time, they are asking to suspend military actions for 30 or even 60 days, asking for a meeting at the highest level. But how can such meetings be held in these conditions? What should they talk about? Who negotiates with those who rely on terror, with terrorists?” - Vladimir Putin
Takeaways:
Russian officials have tried to manage the outrage over Ukraine’s recent strategic successes by downplaying the damage inflicted on Russian military forces while amplifying the damage caused by alleged attacks on railways in Russia which killed and injured civilians. The strategy seems designed to manage expectations for reciprocal strikes among Russian ultranationalists, while simultaneously providing Ukraine skeptics in the West with fresh justifications to oppose continued military assistance.
The lack of a proportional response by the Russian military to Operation Spider Web has not been lost on Russian ultranationalists. On June 6, prominent Russian milblogger "Fighterbomber" expressed disgust that the preceding night's strikes represented Russia's maximum military capability short of nuclear weapons.
The maximalist conditions for peace laid out by the Kremlin in the June 2 Istanbul memorandum are deliberately unrealistic. If and when Russian negotiators abandon elements of their unrealizable demands, they will tout their change of position as a substantive compromise and “gesture of goodwill.” This ploy will be used in an attempt to induce far greater concessions from Ukraine and the West in kind.
2. NORTH KOREA DOUBLES DOWN ON ALLIANCE WITH RUSSIA, RECOVERS ITS SHIP
Kim Jong Un Vows Unconditional Support for Russia in its War Against the West
This week, Russia’s Security Council Secretary, Sergei Shoigu, visited Pyongyang for high-level talks. According to TASS, top agenda items for Shoigu’s trip included discussions on implementing provisions of the Russia-DPRK comprehensive strategic partnership, commemorating North Korea’s participation in its war against Ukraine, and cooperation in “rebuilding” Russia’s Kursk region. During their meeting, Kim Jong Un vowed “unconditional” support for Russia’s foreign policy and military victory over Ukraine.
More North Korean Weapons Appear on the Battlefield in Russia
A report this week by Korea Risk Group’s NK News identified new North Korean mortar systems which had apparently been transferred to the Russian military. Photos of North Korean 60mm and 140mm mortars appeared in operations with Russian paratroopers of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division in Kursk. The mortars are of a caliber that is not standard in either the Russian or North Korean militaries and are considered by some experts to be museum pieces.
North Korea Floats its Capsized Destroyer
Satellite photos taken on June 2 show that North Korea successfully recovered its disabled 5,000-ton Choe Hyon-class destroyer at Chongjin Shipyard. The destroyer partially capsized during a failed launch attempt on May 21. Later imagery taken on June 5 shows the ship floating in the middle of the port’s harbor, suggesting that the ship had officially launched after a quick restoration.
Takeaways:
Kim Jong Un’s reaffirmation of North Korea’s commitment to Russian military victory provided Vladimir Putin with a welcome vote of confidence this week after Ukraine’s devastating strikes on the Russian air force raised new doubts about the direction of the war. The results of previous high-level meetings between Kim and Shoigu suggest that the warm words by the North Korean dictator will be followed by new infusions of North Korean arms to the Russian military in coming weeks.
North Korean artillery shells have provided a lifeline for the Russian military and now comprise as much as 40% of the overall Russian inventory. The success of this support has created demand for a growing number of North Korean weapons to fill gaps in Russian supplies. The influx of new weapons, such as mortars, has come in a mix of different types and calibers. The effectiveness of this expanded military assistance will be mitigated by an associated increase in the complexity of the supply chain needed to support systems unfamiliar to the Russian military.
The impressive speed with which North Korea recovered its newest destroyer from its recent launch disaster suggests that overall damage to the ship is limited.
3. CHINA AND IRAN RALLY NATIONALISTS AND REBUKE THE WEST ON A WEEK OF MAJOR ANNIVERSARIES
Ayatollah Khamenei Celebrates 36th Anniversary of His Predecessor Khomeini’s Death by Declaring Iran a Nuclear Power
This week, Iranian officials and state media produced lavish tributes to the life and legacy of the founder of the modern Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, on the 36th anniversary of his death. His successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, used the occasion to declare that Iran would continue enriching uranium as it pleased and that America “cannot do a damn thing” to stop its nuclear program.
China Lashes Out at US and Taiwan for Fomenting “Color Revolutions” on the 36th Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Massacre
China’s foreign ministry lodged a complaint against US Secretary of State Marco Rubio over a statement he made memorializing the deaths of hundreds of Chinese protesters “who were killed as they tried to exercise their fundamental freedoms” in Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989. Lin Jian, spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, denounced Rubio’s statement: “These remarks maliciously distort historical facts, attack China’s political system and development path, and interfere in China’s internal affairs.”
Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, also issued a statement commemorating the 1989 Tiananmen Square Protests as part of the country’s shared democratic history. “Authoritarian governments often choose to silence and forget history, while democratic societies choose to preserve the truth and refuse to forget those who gave their lives – and their dreams – to the idea of human rights,” Lai said. A day later, in an apparent response to Lai’s comments, regional law enforcement agencies of the Chinese Communist Party issued arrest warrants for 20 members of Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The warrants accuse the DPP members of orchestrating cyberattacks meant to foment “color revolutions” in China.
Takeaways:
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Chinese Communist Party are both revolutionary regimes whose legitimacy is perpetually threatened by divergent interpretations of history. Anniversaries invite questions about historical decisions and the leaders who made them. They prompt the popular imagining of alternative futures in which different decisions occurred. Iran and China, while very different countries with different political systems, face similar challenges of carefully curating anniversaries to reinforce regime narratives and suppress dissent. These narratives justify public sacrifices for the ongoing success of the political revolution and attempt to shift the focus of public discontent to foreign enemies.
Continued defiance of US calls for Iran to end its nuclear program provides Ayatollah Khamenei with a core political cause he can use to lay claim to his predecessor’s legacy as a revolutionary leader. Khamenei uses the nuclear issue to strategically emphasize resistance to the unreasonable demands of Western imperialists. This tactic helps to uphold the legitimacy of the Iranian revolution amid a decade and a half of growing poverty and declining living standards.
The memory of the Tiananmen Square Protests and the success of the Republic of China in Taiwan combine to form a uniquely pernicious threat to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Modern democratic Taiwan, whose citizens are far richer and freer than those on the mainland, serves as an alternative model of Chinese development. The model presented by Taiwan is one which could have been realized with the reforms advocated by the protesters in Tiananmen Square. This explains why CCP officials reacted so strongly to the recent statements made by both the US and Taiwan and moved swiftly to criminalize members of Taiwan’s ruling political party.
4. CHINA CONTINUES A NAVAL SHOW OF FORCE
China’s Liaoning Carrier Group Extends its Deployment into Western Pacific
China’s Liaoning carrier and an accompaniment of two destroyers and two frigates continued their deployment into the Western Pacific Ocean this week. The carrier group was observed passing through the Philippine Sea between the Philippine Archipelago and the US territory of Guam. The Chinese state media claims the carrier conducted 260 aircraft takeoffs and landings this week on its longest deployment ever.
China’s Newest Aircraft Carrier, the Fujian, Conducted its First Exercises in Yellow Sea
This week, South Korean officials alleged that the Fujian, China’s third, largest, and most advanced aircraft carrier, conducted military exercises in the Provisional Measures Zone (PMZ) of the Yellow Sea west of the Korean peninsula. The drills took place at the end of May during a series of Chinese-imposed restrictions on navigation in the PMZ.
China’s Fujian carrier in action Source: ShanghaiEye on YouTube, May 30, 2025 (Shanghai Media Group is part of China’s State-Owned Media)
Takeaways:
New details of the Fujian’s exercises in the Yellow Sea’s PMZ, heighten security concerns, covered in last week’s Significant Activity Report, over China’s militarization of the waterways it shares with South Korea.
The deployment of the Liaoning to the Philippine Sea is significant as it hints at China’s ability to operate a “blue-water" navy capable of striking US allies beyond the first island chain and even threatening US territory in Guam.
5. RUSSIA AND IRAN ARE MASSIVELY SCALING MILITARY PRODUCTION WITH CHINA’S HELP
China is Helping Russia Outproduce Ukraine in Drones
Senior Ukrainian officials allege that China is behind Russia’s recent progress in drone production, in a new report released by Politico this week. The officials cited claim that Chinese manufacturers are providing the Russian defense industry with key hardware and know-how to produce drones, while maintaining plausible deniability through an elaborate array of shell companies and intermediaries. With this help, Russia aims to produce as many as 30,000 drones for long-range strikes and two million tactical drones in 2025.
Iran is Sourcing Fuel for a Ballistic Missile Build Up from China
The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Iran has prepared a massive build up of its ballistic missile forces to deter attacks from the US and Israel after it faced a series of major military setbacks in 2024. Iran has turned to China to provide critical raw materials for their production. This includes chemicals for solid fuel propellant, such as ammonium perchlorate, which Iranian companies have ordered from Chinese commodity firms in Hong Kong.
Takeaways:
The new reports underscore the extent to which violent resistance to the West is increasingly underwritten by China.
Some of the ballistic missiles Iran intends to produce will likely go to its proxy forces across the Middle East.
Major material support to both Russia and Iran will help Beijing expand its influence as a global superpower by securing a stake in security negotiations in both Europe and the Middle East.
China will continue to serve as a key backer of both regimes in order to create security dilemmas that distract the United States and its allies from concentrating their attention on direct strategic competition.
While Beijing would prefer to maintain some deniability of its military assistance to Russia and Iran to preserve its image as a benevolent global leader, it is likely willing to endure significant pressure by the US and its allies to continue its support to both countries.