Weekly Significant Activity Report - May 17, 2025
A week of negotiations, doctrinal updates, and concerning reports
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries between May 10 - May 17, 2025
Summary:
It was a big week for negotiations with Russia and Iran, though with little to show for them.
China and Russia provided new insights into how they think about national security this week.
New reports released this week suggest that the expanding and improving strategic capabilities of the OPFOR, such as their ballistic and hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapons, cyber forces, and space-based systems, will likely test and strain the current global balance of power over the next decade. China may emerge with the world’s most powerful arsenal of strategic weapons by 2035.
CHINA UPDATES ITS NATIONAL SECURITY DOCTRINE. RUSSIA DECIDES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRATEGY
China releases a new national security white paper
On May 12, The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China released a new national security white paper entitled “China’s National Security in the New Era.”1 The paper pitches Chinese global leadership as a necessary corrective for the war, instability, inequality and climate degradation that has come about over the past century under Western dominance. China portrays itself as a harmonizing force for the world whose whose own interests are served by global stability fostered through economic development and regional cooperation.
While the strategy portrays Chinese global leadership as guided by mutual benefit, it also declares its primary national security concern to be the stability and primacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Threats to regime stability have historically been interpreted extremely broadly by the CCP. China has repeatedly responded belligerently to perceived slights and even mild criticism in recent years. It has pursued totalitarian internal security projects to control ethnic minorities, and regularly surveils its citizens’ behavior abroad.
Russia extends its current national security strategy through 2027
This week Vladimir Putin announced that Russia’s National Security Strategy (NSS) would remain unchanged for an additional two years. The NSS has been in place since 2021 and was set to be updated in 2025. The strategy promotes an assertive role for Russia in reshaping an increasingly multipolar global order. It predicts Russia will face a wide range of security threats resulting from hostility directed toward it by a declining West clinging to hegemony.
The strategy, signed into law by Vladimir Putin on July 2, 2021, only 10 days before the July 12th, 2021 release of the now infamous article ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” contains similarly strong ideological foundations for Russian military aggression. The NSS depicts Russia as surrounded by unfriendly countries determined to undermine its internal unity. It notably declares the protection of traditional Russian spiritual and moral values, culture and historical memory as core national security interests.
Takeaways:
Both China and Russia see their national interests as global in scale and growing in response to a changing international landscape brought about by the decline of the West.
China and Russia have different visions for the future world order. China’s vision for future world order is more forward looking, with the country leading an overdue evolution of the existing international system. Russia’s NSS paints a starker image of the future with a return to a balance of powers and interests, and a long term struggle for maintaining Russian culture and historical identity against foreign influence.
The security doctrines are not overtly in opposition with one another but do indicate a long-term divergence in their depiction of world order. Russia sees itself as an indispensable global decision maker in any future multipolar world. China on the other hand sees itself as the transformative leader of the world order. China tolerance for multiple poles of global power in Asia will likely shirk as its interests and power expands.
Putin’s extension of Russia’s aggressive, revisionist national security strategy is notable as it reflects a determination to maintain an antagonistic posture toward the West at a time when the US seeks détente.
RUSSIA AND IRAN DRIVE HARD BARGAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS
Russia requests direct talks with Ukraine—then downgrades them
On May 11th, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the resumption of direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul after pressure by US/EU to agree to an extension of last week’s Victory Day “ceasefire.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky accepted the offer and called for direct talks between the two leaders. Putin declined the invitation to attend his own negotiations and instead sent a low-level delegation lead by personal aide Vladimir Medinsky and deputy ministers.
The talks on May 16 quickly broke down as Russia increased its demands for a ceasefire to include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from land Russia claims but does not occupy in the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Russian negotiators declared that the country was willing to pursue the war indefinitely and threatened to place demands on more Ukrainian territories in the future.
Iran defends its right to enrich nuclear materials in talks
Iran concluded its fourth round of talks with the US in Oman, and the European signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the Obama era nuclear deal) in Turkey this week. The talks produced no breakthroughs and Iran ruled out giving up its civilian nuclear program and domestic uranium enrichment programs. Iran’s determination to flout US demands to curb its nuclear research, was underscored by its hosting of its 31st annual nuclear conference on May 13th. Iran has made some indications it is willing to accept limits its stockpiles of enriched uranium and its ability to weaponize it.
Takeaways:
Iran and Russia appear to be testing the redlines of US negotiators, dragging out talks and digging in on demands.
Iran has shown some willingness to return to JCPOA restrictions on its nuclear program. Iran may be willing to accept these restrictions, as it would still retain a the ability to plausibly threaten to make a nuclear weapon. This may be more valuable option for Iran to assert itself at a lower cost than having to fully develop and defend a nuclear arsenal. Accepting a return to a deal similar to the JCPOA would also represent a win for the Iranian regime over the previous maximum pressure campaign for it to totally abandon its nuclear program.
Vladimir Putin is not interested in accepting any outcome to the war in Ukraine that can be construed as a compromise settlement. Russian negotiators continue to pursue the subjugation of Ukraine by attempting to extract political and territorial changes through diplomacy, which the Russian military has been unable to achieve on the battlefield.
Russia’s lead negotiator at the talks, Vladimir Medinsky, projected confidence that Russia was prepared to spend years at war to pursue victory over Ukraine at any cost. However, his bluster hid an admission against interest that the Kremlin did not believe it was close to a compelling case for victory in the war.
OPFOR ARSENAL OF STRATEGIC WEAPONS TO GROW IN NEXT TEN YEARS
Source: DIA public affairs, May 13, 2025
On May 13th, The Defense Intelligence Agency released a press brief assessing that the number and sophistication of long-range, nuclear capable missiles possessed by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea would grow significantly over the next ten years.
Takeaways:
China will far surpass Russia in its inventory of strategic weapons in the next decade. China’s growing arsenal will soon create a tripolar nuclear balance, and completely upend assumptions nuclear strategy carried over from the Cold War.
China is expected to field a whopping 4,000 hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) weapons by 2035. HGV’s are currently an experimental weapon which mixes the speed of ballistic missiles with the maneuverability of cruise missiles. HGV’s could serve as a potent delivery system for nuclear weapons but could also field conventional munitions and provide a non-nuclear first strike capability which disables US critical infrastructure and nuclear triad.
North Korea will soon have the capability to overwhelm existing US missile interceptors and reliably hit the continental US with nuclear weapons.
Progress in Iran’s ballistic missile program means that it too will be able to field an arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting the US with nuclear weapons, though it is not clear if it intends to do so at this time.
CHINA RAMPING UP SATELLITE LAUNCHES
Chinese firms launch first satellites of a future space based AI system
On May 14th, Chinese tech start up ADA Space and Zhejiang Lab, a project between Alibaba and Zhejiang University, launched the first 12 of a projected 2,800 satellites for a space-based AI computing network called the “Star-Compute Program.” The program aims to create alternatives to terrestrial AI networks, and take advantage of efficiency gains by operating data computing and transmission platforms in space.
China launched two sets of classified satellites
This week China launched new satellites featuring classified technology for the Tongxin Jishu Shiyan-19 (TJS-19) and Yaogan-40 series. The TJS series is an experimental communications satellite which is believed to be associated with signals intelligence collection for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The Yaogan-40 series is believed to have the capability to provide advanced imagery for the PLA.
Takeaways:
China is rapidly expanding its space-based technology. While it is currently being outpaced by the US in the number of satellites it launches per year, China is setting ambitious targets to catch up. The US should expect that the PLA will be deeply integrated into all space systems that China produces.
The Star-Compute Program represents an attempt by Chinese firms to gain a qualitative technological edge over SpaceX’s Starlink system, while the country remains behind in overall satellite launch capability. Elon Musk has previously stated he does not see a use for AI in Starlink and the value of space-based AI networks is still unclear.
NORTH KOREA’S CYBER ARMY IS COMING FOR US JOBS.
Recent reporting suggests North Korean hackers are now launching mass remote work scams to take jobs at Western tech firms. The North Korean cons are becoming more sophisticated due to AI. The remote work scams serve as a new way for the regime to collect intelligence and generate revenue for its weapons programs.
The North Korean cyber army also appears to be undergoing a reorganization, with a new unit “Research Center 227,” serving as a command post to coordinate 24 hour operations with as many as 90 operators.
Takeaways:
Cyber operations are a key asymmetric power projection capability for North Korea. It allows the Kim regime to skirt international isolation and obtain foreign currency. It also allows it to lash out at adversaries at low risk due to its own limited cyber infrastructure. The US and its allies should expect that North Korea will make its cyber forces a top priority for state investment alongside its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
US firms will continue to be a top target of North Korean hackers. These hackers will continue to grow in capability due to advances in open source AI. The annual dollar amount obtained by North Korean cyber operations targeting US companies will likely grow each over year as the Kim regime increases investment in cyber units and sets higher quotas for the revenue they generate.
Andrew S. Erickson’s English language translation of the white paper was used for this analysis.