Weekly Significant Activity Report - May 24, 2025
Russia pushes for more war, Iran conducts diplomatic balancing act in the South Caucasus, China shows off its humanitarian side, North Korea's defense industry soars and sinks
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries between May 17 - May 24, 2025
Summary:
China is making moves to replace funding the US has recently cut from humanitarian assistance programs and international organizations. New Chinese efforts will not totally supplant the US as the world’s development leader. It will however allow China to repair its global image which has suffered since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Russia continues to signal it is not interested in US attempts to negotiate a ceasefire and permanent peace in Ukraine.
North Korea's defense industry was poised for a big week, showcasing new air force and navy equipment suspected by South Korea of having been developed with Russian assistance. However, a ship launching disaster effectively sunk its newest vessel.
1. PEACE TALKS WITH RUSSIA GOING NOWHERE
This week OPFOR Journal released a special Situation Report: Ceasefire Negotiations with Russia to discuss the present state of US mediated peace talks with Russia. In short, Vladimir Putin continues to rebuff US efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and seeks to prolong the conflict, hoping for a more decisive Russian victory.
Since the report was released additional indicators point to growing Russian defiance of calls to end the war. These include:
Ukrainian military officials report Russian troops massing near Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast for a renewed offensive in the region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared on May 21 that Russia is no longer interested in ceasefire discussions.
On May 21, Vladimir Putin openly mused about further annexations of Ukrainian territory during a visit to Kursk Oblast.
On May 22, Putin announced plans to create a military buffer zone along the Russia-Ukraine border, likely indicating an intention to pursue new offensives in Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
On May 23, Lavrov declared the Vatican to be an unsuitable venue for negotiations between two Orthodox Christian countries, dismissing a recent suggestion by President Trump to host talks there.
2. IRAN CONDUCTS DIPLOMATIC BALANCING ACT IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps drills with Azerbaijan
From May 19 - 22 special forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) participated in “Aras 2025” military drills with Azerbaijan. The drills took place in Nagorno-Karabakh, the site of a decades long armed dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh was retaken by Azerbaijan in the fall of 2023, precipitating a mass displacement of ethnic Armenians from the region. Iran is one of Armenia’s closest supporters making its participation in military exercises in the region unusual.
Iran’s Defense Minister makes official visit to Armenia
While IRGC troops trained in Azerbaijan, Iran’s Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh conducted an official visit in Armenia. Nasirzadeh met with his Armenian counterpart as well as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to discuss regional security issues, particularly ongoing peace talks with Azerbaijan. Nasirzadeh reassured Armenian leaders that Iran did not support any proposals for an enduring regional peace which resulted in further changes to Armenia’s territory.
Top aides to leaders of Iran and Azerbaijan meet to discuss regional security
Akbar Ahmadian, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met with Hikmet Hajiyev, a top aide of Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev on May 19th at the Tehran Dialogue Forum. The two discussed regional issues, including drafts of agreements to reconcile territory and security issues with Armenia in pursuit of a permanent peace between the two countries.
Takeaways:
Iran’s flurry of engagement in the South Caucasus region is an attempt to solidify its influence in the region amid growing pressure from Turkey, a top historic rival, and competitor in the region. Turkish power has grown significantly in the South Caucasus after Azerbaijan, its chief ally, defeated Armenia in the Second Karabakh War of 2020 and retook the Nagorno-Karabakh region in full in a lightning offensive in 2023.
Armenia’s defeats came as a major blow to Iran, who has historically counted Armenia as a close partner. The war and resulting rebalance of regional power has threatened Armenian territory along the Iranian border, which Turkey has long desired to create a land corridor directly through Azerbaijan to the Caspian Sea. This has created a multifaceted security dilemma for Iran.
Iran’s relationship with Azerbaijan is extremely complex. Though the two countries share historic ties dating back to the Persian empire and majorities of Shia Muslims, Azerbaijan is firmly within Turkey’s sphere of influence as a politically secular, ethnically Turkic state. Azerbaijan also maintains close relationships with both the US and Israel, and is considered to be a potential staging ground for any future conflict between the countries and Iran.
Tensions between the two countries have grown in recent years. Iran has found it difficult to manage with Azerbaijan through threats of military force. This difficulty is due in part to its own large Azeri population (which some estimates claim represent a third of Iran’s population), that could be incited by Azerbaijan to rebel in the event of a war between the two countries.
Iran’s recent regional security moves appear to be a diplomatic balancing act between acknowledging Azerbaijan’s growing regional power through expanded military cooperation, while setting firm red lines to preserve its strategic interests in Armenia.
Iran’s moves to assert itself as an indispensable regional leader come as trade through the “Middle Corridor” between Europe and China across Central Asia and the Caspian Sea through the Caucasus region to the Black Sea grows in importance for global commerce. The Middle Corridor represents a key arena of competition between Turkey and Iran, with Turkey claiming deep cultural linkages to Central Asia’s ethnically and linguistically Turkic states.
3. CHINA MOVES TO TOP US AS DEVELOPMENT AID LEADER
China’s “Small and Beautiful” project with the World Food Programme
Last weekend, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) announced a new partnership with the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) to deliver 100,000 school meals to students in Kyrgyzstan. The meal program is part of China’s array of Belt and Road Initiative programs called “Small and Beautiful” projects.
China to become top funder of the World Health Organization (WHO)
This week, China announced it would contribute over $500M in funding for the United Nations World Health Organization. The new pledge effectively makes China the largest funder of the organization, overtaking the United States which recently withdrew contributions.
Takeaways:
The new Chinese initiatives are part of a broader effort to position the country as the world leader in development assistance and funding for multilateral agencies. In the past few months China has stepped in to fund several programs formerly supported by USAID. Despite the new initiatives it is unlikely that China has the capacity or interest to completely replace US development assistance.
China may not totally replace US as development leader, but will use the opportunity presented by declining US interest in multilateral initiatives and humanitarian aid to advance its interests in strategic locations such as Southeast Asia and rehabilitate its global image. Chinese soft power has suffered since 2020 due to its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, its use of “wolf-warrior” diplomacy, and its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
China’s move to become top funder of the WHO is noteworthy as the organization has previously come under global scrutiny for its acceptance of censorship and misleading narratives about initial Covid-19 outbreaks by the Chinese government, which may have aggravated the pandemic’s spread. Growing Chinese influence will likely further politicize the organization.
4. NORTH KOREAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY SOARS AND STUMBLES THIS WEEK
North Korea debuts new advanced air to air missile
North Korea debuted a new air to air missile (AAM) during combat drills overseen by Kim Jong Un on May 18. The new missile, resembling the AIM-7 series semi-active radar homing missiles employed by the US during the Cold War, represents a significant improvement for North Korea’s antiquated missile defenses.
New North Korean Destroyer destroyed during launch
A launch ceremony for a new 5,000-ton “Choe Hyon” class destroyer at North Korea’s Chongjin Shipyard ended in disaster on May 21, with the ship apparently capsizing when it hit the water. Kim Jong Un, who presided over the launch, decried the failure as a “criminal act caused by sheer carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism which should never occur and could not be tolerated.”
Takeaways:
The sophistication of the new North Korean missile combined with the speed it was produced suggests that significant Russian technical assistance or technology transfer was involved in its development. The South Korean military also suspects that Russia played a major role in the rapid development of North Korea’s new “Choe Hyon” 5000-ton destroyers. The ship involved in the May 21st accident would have been the second ship of its class launched in less than a month, after only a year of development.
Russian assistance will likely help North Korea achieve other breakthroughs in key weapons systems. OPFOR Journal’s Dan White has previously assessed that Russia is assisting North Korea’s development in other advanced, though not cutting edge systems such as multiple reentry vehicles (MIRVs) for its intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Russian assistance can help North Korea make significant upgrades to its equipment, but the accident at the Chongjin Shipyard demonstrates that there are structural bottlenecks within North Korea’s defense industry which inhibit the country from rapidly catching up to its sworn enemy in the South. The 5,000-ton destroyer was likely too large and too top heavy to have been safely put into the water using a side-launch method. Side launching, in which a ship is essentially slid into the water on its side on rollers, is commonly used for commercial ships but not large naval vessels which are most often lowered into the water end or stern first. It is also likely that the Chongjin Shipyard used unsuitable equipment for the launch, as it typically produces smaller vessels.
5. CHINA UNVEILS EXPERIMENTAL DRONE MOTHERSHIP
This week Aviation Industry Corporation of China unveiled new details of a forthcoming unmanned drone “mothership” called the Jiu Tian or “High Sky.” The Jiu Tian can carry up to 100 small attack and reconnaissance drones for independent missions in addition to a payload of larger precision guided munitions. The ship is allegedly capable of flying up to 7,000 km at an altitude of 15 km.
Source: CGTN (English language Chinese state media) via YouTube
Takeaways:
The Jiu Tian bears striking resemblance to a US MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone, and features similar capabilities in flight endurance and maximum ceiling. This suggests that at least some of the base design for the mothership was derived from mirroring or directly copying US technology. China has a long history of conducting industrial espionage in the US to advance its defense industry. American UAV technology has been an especially coveted target of its spy networks.
The drone mothership concept makes for impressive visuals but is of uncertain practical value. The Aviation Industry Corporation of China calls the drone a super high altitude system, but its 15 km ceiling is well within the range for most advanced air defense systems (unclassified capability briefings peg the max altitude for intercepts by the US Patriot Missile system at 20 km.)
It is also not clear how far the small drones housed within the Jiu Tian can range. Intense development of first person view (FPV) attack drones in Ukraine have resulted in models which can range 15-20 km. Descending from a height of 15 km would limit similar models' range and force the Jiu Tian to slowly loiter directly over its targets, making it very vulnerable in contested airspace.
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