Weekly Significant Activity Report - June 28, 2025
US and Iran race to claim victory after ceasefire in the "12-Day War," Putin and Xi skip the BRICS Summit, Russia's summer offensive sputters along as North Korea steps in to provide more support.
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries between June 21 and June 28, 2025.
Summary
Ceasefire in the so called “12-Day War” leads Iran to declare “victory,” as disputes erupt in the US over the results of Operation Midnight Hammer.
Iran and its supporters find a useful scapegoat in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to blame for its war woes.
Russia’s summer offensive continues grinding away at Ukrainian defenses in the Sumy and Donestk regions but has thus far produced limited gains.
July’s BRICS+ Group Summit in Brazil will proceed without the top leaders from Russia and China present.
North Korea is deepening its involvement in Russia’s war effort with new combat deployments and the dispatch of laborers to man Russian factories and clear former battlefields.
1. CEASEFIRE IN THE “12-DAY WAR”
Iran Declares Victory After Ceasefire
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei broke days of silence following the June 24 ceasefire in his country’s brief conflict with the US and Israel to celebrate “victory.”
In taped remarks on June 26, Khamenei declared that the US had "engaged in the war directly, convinced that its refusal to intervene would lead to the complete destruction of the Zionist regime." The Supreme Leader asserted that, despite the country’s subdued response to American strikes, “The Islamic Republic was victorious and, in retaliation, delivered a hand slap to America’s face.”
Summary of Ayatollah Khamenei’s remarks. Source: Al Jazeera on YouTube
Iran Vows to Continue Nuclear Program
On June 24, Mohammad Eslami, chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), announced that plans were already in motion to prevent any disruption of Iran’s nuclear program.
Debate Intensifies Over the Effectiveness of US Strikes
Days after President Donald Trump declared that “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran” following Operation Midnight Hammer, a preliminary report by the Department of Defense suggested that US strikes produced only modest results. An early battle damage assessment produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency and leaked to the press, assessed that the US strikes had only set back Iran’s nuclear program by several months.
This early report received significant attention in the press and social media, but has been followed by an array of indicators that the Iran’s nuclear ambitions were set back much more significantly. A brief by the CIA presented on June 25 asserted that Iranian nuclear facilities would require years of rebuilding. This assessment echoed comments by both the chief of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi who both characterized damage caused by US strikes as severe, though short of “total obliteration.”
Takeaways:
The strikes on Iran’s nuclear program could indeed have been more superficial than initially expected, but assessing damage of this kind is extremely difficult with the assets the Pentagon has. The DIA’s early analysis likely relied on advanced imagery. Imagery, though valuable for assessing where bombs fell in relation to their intended aim points, as well as some of the structural damage that resulted, cannot fully account for impacts to the sensitive materials and technology at the sites.
Human intelligence, based on an analysis of patterns of activity around the nuclear sites as well as sources on the ground, will reveal more about the strike’s actual impact on Iran’s ability to conduct nuclear research, but will take time to evaluate. Early reports by the CIA and IAEA, which suggested significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program, likely provide a more accurate picture of the impact of US-Israeli strikes.
The framework compiled in OPFOR Journal’s most recent Situation Report suggests the strikes achieved a positive outcome in the short-term. However, this is likely not the end of the conflict despite the current ceasefire. The long-term outcome of Operation Rising Lion and Operation Midnight Hammer could still deteriorate if Iran refuses to concede defeat, recovers large amounts of its 400 kg stockpile of already enriched uranium, and presses ahead toward the development of a nuclear weapon.
2. RUSSIA AND IRAN FIND NEW VILLAIN—THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
Iran Suspends Cooperation with IAEA
On June 27, Iran’s Guardian Council, the 12-member judicial body responsible for vetting legislation, approved a bill by the Iranian Parliament terminating the country’s cooperation with the IAEA.
Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker justified the bill, claiming, “Continued cooperation with the agency, which plays a role as a protector of anti-human interests and an agent of the illegitimate Zionist regime through the pretext of war and aggression, is not possible until the security of our nuclear facilities is ensured.”
Russia’s Foreign Minister Says IAEA Report Instigated War
During a press conference on June 26, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denounced a May 31 report by the IAEA on Iranian nuclear activity as a Western provocation meant to give Israel a pretext to launch strikes. The report accused Iran of violating its obligations under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) by stockpiling more enriched uranium than any other NPT signatory.
Lavrov claimed the report and subsequent June 12 declaration by the IAEA Board of Governors of Iranian non-compliance with the NPT, were “neocolonial” actions whose “deliberately alarmist tone, gave Israel an additional reason to launch the operation, justifying it, among other things, by the IAEA’s allegations."
Pro-Regime Media in Iran Take Aim at IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi
A flood of articles has appeared in Iranian state media and regime-affiliated media, denouncing IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi as a war criminal. Among those casting stones at Grossi was Former Foreign Minister of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who helped negotiate the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Zarif insinuated that recent accusations by Grossi that Iran was conducting enrichment activities in close proximity to world heritage sites in Isfahan, were deliberately setting up justifications for the West to bomb Iranian cultural heritage.
Takeaways:
The Iranian regime’s demonization of the IAEA is a more moderate policy than exiting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) altogether, as Iran had previously threatened it would do. Iranian leaders may feel that action is needed to reassert its right to a nuclear program, in order to avoid the appearance of defeat at the hands of the US and Israel. Exiting the NPT would be a risky move that isolates Iran from diplomatic support from China and Russia, and invites new strikes by the US and Israel.
Targeting the IAEA’s Director General and Board of Governors, rather than the broader non-proliferation regime, gives Iran flexibility in its position and allows it to resume cooperation with the organization in the future after leadership changes. Rafael Grossi’s tenure as IAEA Director General ends December 2, 2027.
3. RUSSIA’S SUMMER OFFENSIVE YET TO MAKE A BREAKTHROUGH
Russian Attack on Ukraine’s Sumy Region Has Stalled
On June 27, Ukraine’s top military commander, General Oleksandr Syrsky, announced that Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Sumy region were now under control. Syrsky claimed the defense of Sumy had effective bottled up 50,000 Russian troops including elite paratroopers and marines that had attempted a breakthrough in the region.
Russia Pressing Hardest on the City of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Region
While Russia’s offensive in Sumy was being managed, the most critical part of the front, according to General Syrsky was further south in the Donetsk region. Syrsky said as many as 110,000 Russian troops were currently attacking Ukrainian lines near the city of Pokrovsk. Pokrovsk has been under siege by Russian forces for over a year.
Takeaways:
The advances in Sumy and Pokrovsk are driving Russian casualties again over 1,000 per day. Such high casualty rates, the result of relentless forward assaults on entrenched Ukrainian positions protected by mines, drones, and artillery, sap Russia’s ability to exploit any opening that may result from temporary breaks in Ukrainian lines. Producing decisive results from grinding offensives has been a recurring challenge Russia has faced in its previous offensives. As long as Ukrainian forces are sufficiently armed, the current Russian offensive is likely to produce similarly limited results.
4. PUTIN AND XI WILL SKIP THE BRICS SUMMIT
This week, Russia announced that President Vladimir Putin would not attend the upcoming BRICS+ Group Summit from July 6-7 in Rio de Janeiro. Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov explained that Putin’s absence at the annual event was due to his outstanding arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC).
"The president will participate via video link in the main events of this summit. This is due to certain difficulties in the context of the ICC requirements, you know, and it was in this context that the Brazilian government could not take a clear position that would allow our president to take part in this meeting," Ushakov said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will also not attend the summit. It is the first time Xi has missed the meeting. Chinese officials claim Xi’s absence is not a snub to Brazil, whose leader he has already met with twice in the past year.
Takeaways:
The absence of two of the five core leaders of the BRICS+ Group, is a blow to Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula has touted Brazil’s ties with China and Russia this year to promote Brazil as a leader in an increasingly multipolar world. Putin and Xi’s absence in Brazil make Lula appear to be a much more junior partner in the organization.
Brazil is unlikely to have arrested Putin, but his absence saves Lula, who had previously welcomed Putin to visit, from uncomfortable questions about Brazil’s selective embrace of international law.
The reason for Xi’s absence is much less clear. It is possible that Xi absented himself out of solidarity with Putin. Another possible explanation is that Xi did not like the optics of attending the summit after Brazil had offered India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi the honor of a state dinner during the meeting. The image of India’s leader getting preferential treatment would have potentially diminished Xi’s relative standing at the summit, made worse by Russia’s decision to send a lower level delegation.
This case highlights fundamental tensions within the BRICS+ Group that threaten to undermine its long-term potential as a decision-making body. Core BRICS+ members China, India, and Russia share short-term interests but are each striving to use the organization to shape incompatible versions of world order that favor their country’s interests. Rivalry between India and China presents the greatest source of tension within the group.
Friction within the BRICS+ Group will grow as it expands and incorporates new members. Adversarial relations between newcomers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, will make substantive governing decisions more difficult.
5. NORTH KOREA PREPARING NEW DEPLOYMENTS TO RUSSIA
New North Korean Troops Deploying to Combat This Summer
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) briefed the South Korean parliament on June 26 that North Korea was recruiting troops for a new combat deployment in support of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The NIS assessed this deployment would take place in late July or August.
Ukraine Says it’s Fighting the Kim Regime’s Praetorian Guard
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced in a June 26 press briefing that North Korean troops deployed to combat consisted of as much as 20% of Kim Jong Un’s personal guard force. The troops, which have sustained as many as 6,000 casualties so far, were selected for deployment due to elite training and political reliability.
Takeaways:
North Korea is fully invested in Russian victory. The Kim regime has intertwined its interests with that of Putin and North Korea now stands to gain or lose substantially depending on Russia’s success in the war. Kim will keep gradually escalating North Korean involvement in the war as long as doing so does not produce knock-on effects that endanger the stability of his regime.
The NIS report comes less than a week after Russian media announced that North Korea agreed to provide Russia with thousands of laborers and military engineers to help demine and rebuild Kursk region. Other reporting during this time period suggests that the Kim regime is also considering sending as many as 25,000 laborers to Russia’s Tatarstan to help build Shahed drones.
The news of additional North Korean support for Russia’s military and workforce illuminates, by proxy, the growing challenges Russia has with sustaining its war effort amid deteriorating economic conditions and high casualties.