Weekly Significant Activity Report - June 14, 2025
Iran and Israel go to war, China plays the critical mineral card, Kim snubs Trump, Wagner Group leaves Mali, Russia advances on Dnipropetrovsk
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries between June 7 - June 14, 2025
Summary
Israel caught Iran off guard with the start of Operation Rising Lion, devastating the top echelons of the Iranian military. Iran has since struck back hard at Israel and threatened to expand the war.
Reopening the supply of critical minerals from China was at the forefront of trade discussions this week between China and the US.
Chinese state-owned industrial giants gain lucrative, strategically significant contracts with Canada and Egypt.
Kim Jong Un is resisting attempts by the Trump Administration to restart diplomacy between the US and North Korea.
The Wagner Group is ending one of its remaining overseas missions in Mali in an apparent overhaul of Russian security cooperation in Africa.
Russian troops advance on new Ukrainian regions in a bid by the Kremlin to strengthen its negotiating position.
1. IRAN AND ISRAEL GO TO WAR
Israel Launches Operation Rising Lion
Overnight on June 13, Israel launched a massive series of air strikes against Iran in a bid to halt its nuclear program. The initial strikes, part of an expected multi-day campaign entitled "Operation Rising Lion" killed top Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists and damaged several sites associated with the Iranian nuclear program. The first day of attacks and counterattacks was covered in a special OPFOR Journal Situation Report released on Friday.
Iran Responds to Attacks with Massive Bombardment of Israel
Iran has retaliated against Israel’s attacks with multiple salvos of ballistic missiles and drones. Israeli media reported that as of Saturday, Iran had fired an estimated 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli cities, killing three people and injuring at least 80. The Israeli military has claimed that 75% of Iranian drones and missiles have thus far been shot down. Videos show ballistic missile strikes on Tel Aviv and other cities in addition to interceptions by air defenses. The US has also stepped in to support Israeli air defenses.
Source: The Associated Press on YouTube
Mossad Destroyed Iranian Ballistic Missiles with Drone Base Inside Iran
Iran’s retaliation may have been tempered by preemptive strikes on Iranian ballistic missile launchers orchestrated by a secret Mossad drone base within the country.
Source: CNN on YouTube
Takeaways:
Iranian leaders appear to have been caught off guard by the attacks, believing they still had time to prepare for a military response due to ongoing negotiations. This unpreparedness likely contributed to the success of Israel’s initial strikes on the top leaders of the Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Mossad’s ability to launch drones strikes from within Iran further exemplifies the poor state of regime’s internal security apparatus. Mossad previously exploited serious lapses in Iranian security to assassinate Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024.
Iran and Israel will continue to escalate strikes on one another in the coming days. Iran will seek to widen the war and potentially attack American interests to mobilize the isolationist wing of the Trump administration into restraining Israel. Iranian officials have suggested to Russian state media that they are considering shutting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Israel will try to rapidly neutralize much of Iran’s ballistic missile capability to reduce pressure on its own air defenses and set the pace for the war.
The OPFOR Journal Situation Report on the start of Operation Rising Lion provides more details on the results of the first day of fighting and the events that led to the war.
2. TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHINA PUT CRITICAL MINERALS IN SPOTLIGHT
Deal for Rare Earth Metals and Other Critical Minerals Key Focus of US-China Trade Talks
This week the Trump administration secured an informal agreement with Chinese officials at trade negotiations in Geneva to issue a limited number of permits for the export of rare earth minerals. The White House has been trying to get Beijing to ease export restrictions that it imposed on numerous critical minerals in retaliation for US tariffs.
New Report Alleges China’s Critical Minerals Extracted through Forced Uyghur Labor
A new report released on June 10 by the Netherlands-based human rights group Global Rights Compliance documented Chinese efforts to ramp up the extraction of critical minerals by employing its Uyghur minority in forced labor. Forced labor was most used to extract beryllium, lithium, magnesium, and titanium. The report highlights why the Chinese supply of these critical materials is so cheap, and the human cost of the world’s dependency on Chinese raw materials.
Takeaways:
China is by far the leading supplier of rare earth elements and many other critical minerals. This gives Beijing significant leverage it can use in trade negotiations, particularly to extract concessions on US restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and other sensitive technology.
While China imposed export controls on critical minerals in response to US tariffs in April 2025, it is not the first time it has done so. Beijing restricted the sale of other rare earth metals in December 2023 following controls the US and its partners imposed on the sale of advanced semiconductors to China. These restrictions came months after the Chinese Communist Party halted exports of gallium, germanium and antimony earlier in 2023.
Beijing may be able to gain some short-term advantage in trade talks with the US by withholding exports of critical minerals, but over the long term, the decision to threaten global supply chains may backfire. While China currently dominates the supply of many rare earth metals and critical minerals, these raw materials are also found elsewhere, including in the US. Alternative sources that were underexploited due to the historical availability of inexpensive Chinese supplies, may soon be developed more aggressively in the US and shared among allies.
3. CHINA GAINS STRATEGIC FOOTHOLDS WITH NEW CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS
Chinese Shipyards Will Build Canada’s Newest Fleet of Ferries
This week, B.C. Ferries, the water transport provider for Canada’s province of British Columbia, awarded a new contract to China’s CMI Weihai to build four new ships for its regional ferry service. The deal has raised both ethical and national security concerns, as Weihai Shipyards is a Chinese state-owned firm, and the ferry specifications listed in the contract appear to resemble those of transport ships being prepared for a future invasion of Taiwan.
China’s Construction Giants Will Build and Operate Egypt’s New Capital
State-owned construction behemoth China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) has been contracted by Egypt to develop its new capital city. CSCEC will not only build but help run and maintain the “New Administrative Capital” of six million residents.
Takeaways:
China continues to lure US allies and partners into deals that weave state-owned companies into critical infrastructure and essential public services. The deals present long-term security risks for these countries as they provide dependencies on Chinese products, services, and goodwill. China’s recent export controls on critical minerals highlight its growing willingness to use economic coercion to get its way.
4. NORTH KOREA RESISTING OVERTURES FROM THE US
New reporting by Korea Risk Group’s NK News suggests that US President Trump has reportedly sent a conciliatory letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, among other gestures, in an effort to restart relations. However, Kim has apparently declined to respond.
Takeaways:
President Trump will likely have a difficult time restarting engagement with North Korea. The Trump administration's abrupt withdrawal from negotiations with North Korea during its initial term may have fostered enduring distrust with Pyongyang. Trump's early departure from a February 2019 summit was widely seen as a humiliating snub to Kim Jong Un.
5. RUSSIA’S WAGNER GROUP LEAVES MALI
Russia’s Wagner Group has declared its mission accomplished in Mali and begun preparations to withdraw from the country. Russia is not leaving Mali despite the Wagner Group’s exit. Africa Corps, a security contractor controlled by the Russian Ministry of Defense, will assume the Wagner Group’s mission.
Takeaways:
The Wagner Group has operated as many as 1,500 fighters in Mali since arriving in December 2021. It is not yet clear how big the Africa Corps force replacing it will be.
The Wagner Group encountered difficulties operating in Mali despite finding success elsewhere in Africa. The group suffered significant battlefield losses at the hands of Tuareg separatist groups, including in a major ambush in Northern Mali in July 2024 that claimed the lives of dozens of Wagner contractors. The shift from the Wagner Group to the Africa Corps is an effort by the Kremlin to better coordinate Russia’s operations in West Africa as part of a long-term regional security strategy.
Replacing the Wagner Group with Africa Corps also reflects a desire by the Malian government for a more disciplined and accountable security force controlled by the Russian government. Reports that Wagner contractors engaged in widespread massacres of civilians and operated secret detention and torture facilities helped fuel public outrage toward Mali’s military-ruled government in recent months, which put its legitimacy at risk.
6. RUSSIA TARGETS NEW UKRAINIAN REGION
The Russian military says it has made advances into the Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk this week. The region was occupied by Russia during its initial invasion but was liberated as part of Ukraine’s summer 2022 counter offensives. Prominent geographical tracker of the war The Institute for the Study of War has not confirmed these advances as of June 13, and Kyiv has denied Russian claims.
Takeaways:
The Russian military is targeting Dnipropetrovsk, as part of an effort to create a “buffer zone” for the Ukrainian regions it has annexed. The advance is part of a summer offensive by the Russian military which has also recently targeted the Sumy region.
Russia threatened to lay claim to other regions of Ukraine if it did not submit to its demands in recent negotiations. The Kremlin may be trying to establish a toehold in Dnipropetrovsk to create the impression of fresh momentum on the battlefield and strengthen its negotiating position after humiliating losses it suffered during Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web.