Weekly Significant Activity Report - August 30, 2025
China protests support for Taiwan, Russia lashes out at Europe through Ukraine as its economic woes grow, Iran attempts to thwart sanctions, North Korean growth fueled by cooperation with Moscow.
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries between August 23, 2025 - August 30, 2025.
Summary:
China reacted angrily this week to displays of support for Taiwan by US Senator Roger Wicker and Philippine officials, denouncing them as violations of the "One China" principle. Beijing's particularly intense response stems from the timing: the displays of solidarity undermine China's narrative around its upcoming 80th anniversary celebration of Chinese victory in WWII, where the Chinese Communist Party seeks to assert itself, rather than its Taiwan-exiled Nationalist predecessors, as the decisive wartime leader.
Russia engaged in multiple menacing and violent acts targeting Europe this week. These included the bombing of the British Council and nearby European Union Mission to Kyiv, and a move to withdraw Russia from the European Convention on Preventing Torture. The provocations occurred as European leaders discussed deploying troops to enforce post-war security guarantees in Ukraine.
After a brief rally on peace hopes, the Russian economy experienced a new series of woes this week as Ukrainian strikes inflicted serious damage on the Russian oil and gas industry.
Iran and its supporters scrambled to thwart the resumption of sanctions as European leaders moved to initiate the 2015 nuclear deal’s snapback mechanism.
Iran’s diplomatic relations with Australia went up in flames amid reports by Australian security services that the Revolutionary Guard Corps sponsored antisemitic arson attacks in the country.
A new report by the Bank of Korea suggests that Pyongyang experienced a burst of economic activity in 2024 driven by industries supporting Russia’s war effort.
1. BEIJING ANGERED BY ACTS OF SOLIDARITY WITH TAIWAN IN LEAD UP TO MAJOR WAR ANNIVERSARY
China Warns Visit by Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Violates One China Principle
This week an official US delegation led by Senator Roger Wicker, the Chairman for the Senate Armed Services Committee visited Taiwan. Upon landing Senator Wicker praised Taiwan’s democratic achievements and vowed to support its right to self determination.
“The Taiwanese people, the success of their highly advanced economy, and their resolve to live in a free society, are a symbol of hope for the world. I’m glad to be here and to stand shoulder to shoulder with the free people of Taiwan as we work together to enhance their right to self-determination.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced the visit and Senator Wicker’s remarks as a dangerous provocation.
“The visit by the U.S. Congress member seriously violated the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués, harmed China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and sent a seriously wrong message to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces. China strongly deplores this.”
China Warns Philippines Over Support for Taiwan
On August 29, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a warning to the Philippines to “stop playing with fire on issues concerning China's core interests, and stop sending any wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.” The warning followed reports that a delegation of 70 Taiwanese officials visiting the Philippines to discuss three-way economic cooperation with the US included Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung. Beijing considers Lin Chia-lung to be a supporter of Taiwanese independence.
Takeaways:
While China consistently responds strongly to high-profile visits to Taiwan by US officials, recent demonstrations of solidarity appear to be particularly provocative to Beijing. Beijing's heightened irritation over this week's support for Taiwan from both the US and the Philippines stems from the timing. China is preparing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II with a monumental celebration involving its own shows of global solidarity with the leaders of Russia, India, North Korea and other major non-Western powers.
High-level engagement with Taiwan undercuts China’s core message that victory over Japan during the Second World War was achieved through the decisive leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. In reality, the Chinese Communists played only a minor supporting role during the war. The Chinese National Revolutionary Army, led by Chiang Kai-shek, bore the brunt of fighting on the Chinese mainland after 1937. The US, which led the war in the broader Indo-Pacific after 1941, supported both the Communists and Nationalists during the war.
This is an inconvenient history for the CCP and partly why it has instead tried to reframe the Second World War as the "World Anti-Fascist War." World Anti-Fascist War is a euphemism for the struggle waged by communist forces on a variety of fascist and non-fascist adversaries starting around the Spanish Civil War. Commemorating this version of history inflates the CCP's role in the war, diminishes Western allies' contributions, and co-opts Nationalist achievements. It also hints at connections between China’s war against Imperial Japan, the Soviets’ war against Nazi Germany, and the Korean War, as part of the broader de-colonial movement that continues to the present in the form of the struggle for a multipolar world order against the West. This implied historical connection will be on full display during next week’s celebrations as Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un join Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Acts of solidarity with Taiwan create dissonance in this grand historical narrative that the CCP is attempting to sell to the world. It undermines the claim that the Chinese Communist Party represents all Chinese people and can lay a claim to leading China’s war effort in the Second World War. It also undermines the revisionist anti-Western arc of history that China is attempting to construct by demonstrating that the development path pursued by the CCP was not predetermined and that the Chinese people could prosper under an alternative, more open and democratic system.
2. RUSSIA LASHES OUT AT EUROPE AMID PROPOSALS FOR PEACEKEEPING FORCES
Russian Bombs Destroy European Diplomatic Buildings in Kyiv
Between August 27-28 Russia attacked Ukrainian cities in a massive overnight air assault featuring as many as 629 drones and missiles. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the attacks, which killed 25 civilians in an apartment block, were the second largest of the war and most deadly since the August 15 Alaska Peace Summit.
The attacks were especially noteworthy as they also struck numerous European diplomatic installations. At least one missile struck the British Council in Kyiv. The British Council is the UK’s leading cultural education organization. Debris from Russian strikes also caused serious damage to facilities belonging to the European Union’s Mission to Ukraine.
Russia Moves to Withdraw from Torture Convention
On August 23, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submitted a resolution to withdraw the country from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment for approval to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Takeaways:
The nature of recent strikes suggests that Russia is targeting, or at least trying to intimidate European diplomats. The buildings housing the British Council and EU Mission are located in the same block in the center of Kyiv. The British Council building was struck directly and the EU Mission experienced two near misses. The strikes are likely a Russian message to European leaders about the risk posed by a security mission to Ukraine, suggesting that Russia is willing to target members of European peacekeeping forces in the future.
Moscow’s move to withdraw from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture is designed primarily to appease dissatisfied Russian nationalists who believe the Russian government has been too soft on anti-war opposition and Ukrainian prisoners. It is however, another means of signaling—very menacingly—to Europe that Russia is willing to further forfeit cooperation on core issues like human rights in order to assert its national interests.
3. AFTER BRIEF RALLY ON PEACE HOPES, PESSIMISM RETURNS TO THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY, DRIVEN BY OIL AND GAS WOES
Ukraine Strikes Multiple Oil and Gas Facilities Slowing Production
This week Russia suffered multiple blows to its oil and gas industry caused by Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes:
August 26 - Reuters reports 10 Ukrainian strikes in August disabled as much as 17% of all Russian refining.
August 27 - Ukraine struck the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar region and the Kuibyshev refinery in Samara region.
August 28 - Reuters reported Russia’s Ust-Luga port on the Baltic Sea would operate at 50% capacity due to Ukrainian strikes, and that the Kuibyshev refinery had suspended operations. Reuters further estimated that Russia’s total capacity to refine oil had shrunk by 6.4 million tons with 3.1 million tons resulting from Ukrainian strikes and sabotage.
Gasoline Shortages in Russia’s Far East and Crimea
Officials in the Kuril Islands of Russia’s Far East announced that local shortages of gasoline required rationing to preserve supply for special vehicles. Shortages were also reported in Primorye and Zabaikalsky regions in addition to occupied Crimea.
Estimates of Russian Oil and Gas Exports Shrink for 2025
Russian business journal Vedimosti reported on August 25 that exports of liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2025 are expected to shrink more than 2% overall compared with 2024. Total Russian exports of LNG are assessed to reach 46 billion cubic meters, down almost 10% from February projections anticipating 51 billion cubic meters.
Russian Oil Executives Summoned to Moscow to Discuss Stabilizing Market
Russian news outlet Interfax reported that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak met with top energy executives on August 25 to discuss emergency measures to stabilize the domestic supply of gasoline. Measures discussed included gasoline export bans through September and special price controls
Takeaways:
Ukraine’s attacks underscore the vulnerability Russia has incurred through its dependence on its fossil fuel industry. The vast oil and gas infrastructure that Russia possesses presents the Ukrainian military with a rich array of stationary targets, whose destruction causes ripple effects throughout the Russian economy. They are special pain points Ukraine can continue to exploit to increase the cost of the war for both the Russian people who rely on the byproducts of Russian fossil fuels in the course of their daily lives, and Russian elites who depend on the industry for their wealth.
The cumulative effect of Ukrainian attacks and sanctions are beginning to seriously stymie Russia’s economic growth. This week the Kremlin revised its own estimates for 2025 GDP growth down from 2.5% to 1.5%.
Slowing growth by itself will not convince Vladimir Putin to end the war, but combined with continued Western support for Ukraine and indecision on the battlefield, will contribute to divides within Russia’s military, political, and economic elites who will question the ultimate cost and feasibility of victory.
4. SNAPBACK OF EUROPEAN SANCTIONS LOOM FOR IRAN
IAEA Inspectors Return to Iran
This week, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) returned to Iran after formally being expelled in early July.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi framed the return of IAEA inspectors as necessary for the safety and expert oversight of fuel replacement at the still operational Bushehr nuclear plant.
"The arrival of IAEA inspectors to Iran was carried out by the decision of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) to monitor the fuel replacement of the Bushehr power plant."
Russia and China Draft Resolution to Extend Negotiations
This week Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations announced that Moscow and Beijing were proposing a Security Council resolution to extend negotiations over Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by six months.
"We would like to extend Resolution 2231. Russia and China, as responsible participants in the JCPOA, wish to provide some room for diplomacy and opportunities to seek a compromise to this issue."
The resolution would continue diplomatic efforts to secure a new nuclear deal until April 18, 2026, and postpone the resumption of sanctions in the meantime.
Europe Moves to Reimpose Sanctions
On August 28, France, Germany, and the UK—the European signatories (E3) to the JCPOA—announced their intention to snapback sanctions on Iran over the country’s violations of the agreement and refusal to end its nuclear program. The process of resuming sanctions will take at least 30 days.
Iranian Lawmakers Drafting Bill to Withdraw from NPT
On August 29, Hossein Ali Haji Deligani, a senior conservative member of Iran’s parliament drafted “emergency” legislation to withdraw the country from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in response to the impending snapback of European sanctions.
Iranian Foreign Minister Denounces Europe Over Snapback Motion
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a lengthy denunciation of France, Germany and the UK over their decision to restart sanctions on X on August 29. Araghchi taunted the European powers as vassals of the US looking to stay in Washington’s good graces and reassert themselves on the world stage after losing opportunities to influence events in Ukraine.
Takeaways:
Iran is in a very difficult position. Its economy will suffer under renewed sanctions, but the regime can’t be seen as caving to Western pressure. It also has much more limited leverage for pushing back. Continued military setbacks have made further strikes on Iran by the US and Israel appear feasible as a means of preventing the country from developing nuclear weapons. It also does not enjoy significant support for its nuclear ambitions.
While Russia and China support Iran as a fellow antagonist of the West, they are not excited to see Iran become a nuclear power. Their delaying action is not an endorsement of Iran’s nuclear program, but an attempt to divide the US and Europe and complicate efforts to pressure Iran. By extending negotiations, Russia and China may hope to wait out Europe’s interest in resuming sanctions. The snapback mechanism for sanctions under the JCPOA officially expires October 18. An extension could make any resumption of sanctions after October appear as a violation of the original JCPOA, allowing Iran to frame Europe (and of course the US) rather than itself, as responsible for derailing future negotiations.
Iran has voiced support for Russian and Chinese motions to extend negotiations. Tehran appears to be using new cooperation with the IAEA as a confidence-building gesture to demonstrate it is a responsible nuclear power. The ploy is evident in FM Araghchi’s threat that a sanctions snapback “…will severely undermine the ongoing dialogue between Iran and the IAEA.”
Withdrawing from the NPT, while a popular option among hardliners in the Iranian regime, is not a winning strategy for the country. If Iran does withdraw, it will join North Korea as the only states to exit the treaty, increasing its international isolation with limited benefits.
Unlike North Korea, withdrawing from the NPT will come with significant risk for Iran. North Korea had significant conventional military capability to deter strikes on its nuclear facilities. Though Pyongyang would have ultimately lost any war with the US and South Korea, it had the ability to inflict immense damage on Seoul with artillery and missiles. It could also count on China to have an interest in preventing a total regime collapse and unification under a US-backed Republic of Korea. This combination of factors allowed North Korea to more effectively wield its withdrawal from the NPT to gain concessions from its adversaries in Seoul and Washington, as well as its supporters in Beijing to prevent the breakout of war.
Iran has no such leverage. It has seen its once formidable military deterrence capability erode in recent years. The US and Israel have demonstrated that they can strike Iranian nuclear facilities to set back its nuclear program at will. Withdrawing from the NPT will incentivize further military interventions.
5. IRANIAN AMBASSADOR EXPELLED FROM AUSTRALIA OVER IRANIAN SPONSORED ATTACKS ON AUSTRALIAN JEWS
This week, a report by Australia’s Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) and the Australian Federal Police concluded with high confidence that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard helped coordinate at least two recent attacks on Jewish communities in Australia. These included arson attacks on the Lewis’ Continental Kitchen in Sydney and the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne in the fall of 2024. The attacks were conducted through multiple intermediaries to conceal Iranian involvement.
According to Foreign Minister Penny Wong, the Australian government is taking multiple measures to punish the country.
“We have informed the Iranian ambassador to Australia he and three additional Iranian diplomats will be expelled.
We have suspended operations at our embassy in Tehran and all our diplomats are now safe in a third country.
The Government will legislate so we can list Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—the IRGC—as a terrorist organisation.”
Takeaways:
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has a long history of sponsoring terrorist attacks on Jewish populations and inflaming antisemitic sentiments worldwide. It has stepped up these efforts since October 7, 2023 and attempted to infiltrate the broader pro-Palestinian/anti-Israeli protest movement and induce its members toward violent acts.
Iran’s support for global terrorism is a major factor that has both dampened support for its nuclear program in Beijing and Moscow, and contributed to the West’s willingness to take aggressive action to stop it from developing a nuclear weapon.
6. NORTH KOREAN ECONOMY EXPERIENCING A GROWTH SPURT
South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea reported on August 29 that North Korea’s economy grew by 3.7% in 2024, its highest rate of economic growth since 2016 and exceeding South Korea’s 2% growth.
The growth was primarily the result of gains in the mining, manufacturing, and construction sectors.
Mining grew 8.8%—up from 2.8% growth in 2023.
Manufacturing grew 7%—up from 5.9% growth in 2023.
Construction grew 12.3%—up from 8.2% growth in 2023.
Takeaways:
While the report did not specify the extent to which the growth was spurred by cooperation with Russia, the data suggests that growth was concentrated in sectors that are supplying the Russian military. Manufacturing growth was led by heavy manufacturing and chemicals production (10.7% growth)—sectors responsible for the production of weapons—while light industry which produces for consumer goods dropped (-0.7% growth).