Weekly Significant Activity Report - February 14, 2026
This week’s analysis highlights some of the most significant geopolitical developments involving America’s adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—between February 7, 2026 - February 14, 2026.
Summary:
This week Russia instituted significant new restrictions on international social media platforms including Telegram, YouTube, Instagram and WhatsApp as part of an effort to force Russian citizens to use its state-sponsored messaging service.
Russia signaled a resumption of hardline negotiating tactics with the US through repeated criticisms by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the reappointment of a belligerent ideologue to lead negotiations.
Five European governments issued a joint statement accusing Russia of poisoning former opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Satellite imagery suggests China has completed the development of the first of its new Type 095 nuclear attack submarines.
Prominent Chinese AI company DeepSeek faced serious new allegations of intellectual property theft and promotion of anti-Western disinformation ahead of the launch of its newest V4 model.
China dealt a decisive blow to Hong Kong's democracy, sentencing Jimmy Lai, a media mogul and prominent leader of the city’s democratic movement, to 20 years in prison for political offenses.
Iran expanded its crackdown on anti-regime opposition, with thousands of new arrests including of Reformist politicians.
A new report by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service assessed that Kim Jong-un is prepared to officially name his daughter Kim Ju-ae as his heir and future supreme leader of the country.
1. RUSSIA CRACKS DOWN ON FOREIGN SOCIAL MEDIA TO CREATE A “SOVEREIGN INTERNET”
This week Russian telecom regulator Roskomnadzor intensified an effort to restrict access to international social media platforms including Telegram, WhatsApp, Instagram, and YouTube.
On February 10, Roskomnadzor announced it would begin efforts to “partially restrict” connectivity to Telegram in Russia. Roskomnadzor claimed the restrictions on Telegram stemmed from ongoing non-compliance with state-mandated counter terrorism measures.
On the same day, Roskomnadzor also removed YouTube from the Russian Domain Name Service (DNS). According to independent Russian internet and technology media outlet “Exploit,” which was first to report on the outage, the removal of YouTube occurred nearly simultaneously with the restrictions on Telegram.
“Exclusive: Roskomnadzor has taken advantage of the confusion to crack down on YouTube. Our sources among ISPs report that the video hosting domain has completely disappeared from Roskomnadzor's DNS servers. What this means is that now, when you try to access YouTube, your router simply can't associate the site's address with its IP address, and you get an error. As a result, the service will be completely inaccessible without a VPN. By the way, Happy Safer Internet Day.”
Additional websites have also been removed from Russia's DNS servers, including social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Facebook Messenger, and WhatsApp; news outlets such as the UK's BBC Russia, Germany's DW Russia, the US's Svoboda (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty), and Russian independent media outlets Current Time and The Moscow Times; as well as VPN websites such as Tor Project and Windscribe.
Takeaways:
The restrictions are part of a broader Russian effort to create a “sovereign internet,” to centralize control of the digital information space in a similar fashion to China. A key component of this strategy is MAX, Russia's new state-controlled messaging platform modeled after WeChat, which the government can more easily regulate and surveil. The throttling of Telegram—the most popular Russian social media platform—in particular appears intended to force Russian users to migrate to MAX.
Russia’s new MAX state messaging app. Source: MAX.ru The restrictions on Telegram have generated widespread outrage among influential Russian military bloggers, and some Russian officials, who have expressed concern that Telegram is a key source of information and communication for Russian troops. Independent Russian media outlet Astra collected numerous appeals by Russian troops to the Russian government on February 10 to undo the restrictions, citing military necessity.
“‘I am appealing to RKN. My call sign is DJ. And right now I am on combat duty. I am a member of the Albatross group. We are fighting against enemy UAVs so that they don’t reach our beloved homeland of Russia. And Telegram is our only communication channel. Don’t deprive us of it!’, said the first military personnel.”
“‘Hello, brothers and sisters! I am a man who is on combat duty, a military serviceman. I want to appeal through you to the comrades from Roskomnadzor, the comrades who oversee this very Roskomnadzor. At the moment, we need a tool like Telegram. Don’t slow it down or block it. It allows us to exchange information quite quickly in order to intercept drones. That’s all,’ said the second military personnel.”
“‘We, the fighters who are part of the Albatross group for countering UAVs, appeal to the leadership of the RKN services not to slow down and block the work of Telegram, at least in the new territories, as this will lead to a drop in the effectiveness of our work in countering UAVs,’ said the third fighter.”
Prominent mil-blogger, Fighterbomber further complained to his over 538,000 followers that the restrictions were especially egregious coming on the heels of recent Western efforts to stop Russian forces from using Starlink satellite communications.
“Unfortunately, we can’t disable ‘Starlink’ for the Ukrainians. But we can disable ‘Telegram’ for the Russians ! And since we can, why not do it? )”
The restrictions on so many communications channels used by Russian troops will inevitably have a deleterious effect on the Russian military's ability to conduct offensive operations. According to a February 12 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine has begun exploiting the degraded communications to consolidate their defenses and make localized gains:
“Ukrainian forces are conducting localized and opportunistic counterattacks near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border, likely to take advantage of recent blocks on Starlink terminals and Telegram.”
2. RUSSIA SIGNALING A RETURN TO HARDLINE DIPLOMACY WITH THE US
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Launches Multi-Day Tirade Against US
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made critical remarks about the ongoing trilateral peace negotiations and US diplomacy in interviews and public statements on at least three separate occasions this week, in a marked break with the more positive assessments of US-Russia relations made by other Russian officials. Lavrov rejected proposed security guarantees for Ukraine, accused the US of turning its back on agreements made earlier in the peace process, and stated that he does not believe that the prospects of US and Russian economic cooperation are very bright.
Russia Re-appoints Ideologue to Lead Negotiations with US and Ukraine
On February 13, the Kremlin announced that Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky will lead the next round of trilateral negotiations with US and Ukraine in Geneva on February 17-18. Medinsky will replace the commander of Russia’s military intelligence (GRU), Igor Kostyukov, as the head of the Russian delegation. Medinsky is a hardliner and ideologue who has acted belligerently at previous talks, drawing the ire of both the US and Ukraine.
Takeaways:
The reappointment of Medinsky is an especially ominous sign for any prospective deal with Russia to end the war, as his primary credentials for leading negotiations stem from his years of experience shaping Russia's ultranationalist political ideology and his overwhelming hostility toward Ukraine. Medinsky, a former Minister of Culture, has played a leading role in the Kremlin's effort to rehabilitate Stalin and brand Ukraine as a neo-Nazi state. He is known for espousing inaccurate—and at times bizarre—beliefs, such as suggesting that natural selection has bestowed the Russian people with an extra chromosome.
In his criticisms, Sergei Lavrov continues referring to a US-Russia "Anchorage Formula" for resolving the war in Ukraine, which he accuses the US of violating at the behest of Ukraine and Europe. The exact details of this framework remain unclear. However, Lavrov appears to allude to an agreement forcing Ukraine to cede the Donbas region, which the US is now reneging on. The US has never acknowledged that such an agreement exists, and multiple reports indicate that the August meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage, where any agreement would have been concluded, ended early and unsatisfactorily. The cession of the Donbas appears to have been first formally suggested months later in a 28-point peace plan principally proposed by Russian Special Envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
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Whether or not any such framework exists, Lavrov and other Kremlin officials continue to emphasize the idea of a secret deal in order to portray the US and Russian leaders as the principal agents in negotiating an end to the war in an effort to drive a wedge between the US, Ukraine, and Europe.
The new hardline approach signals two possibilities. First, the Kremlin may be dissatisfied with the progress that Kirill Dmitriev—a Western-educated financier who has built rapport with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff—has made in negotiations and is preparing to return to a more overtly belligerent posture. This may partly reflect a perceived need to push back more firmly against what Moscow views as bullying by the Trump administration, which has intensified pressure in recent weeks by seizing Russian shadow fleet vessels and seeking to further restrict Russia’s oil sales. Lavrov’s recent outspoken criticism may indicate that he is leading the effort to demote Dmitriev, who he is believed to have been feuding with for months.
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Alternatively, the Kremlin may not intend to demote Dmitriev but rather to develop a “good cop, bad cop” dynamic that exploits the Trump administration’s growing desire to quickly secure what it views as the best deal for itself (rather than for Ukraine) to end the war. Dmitriev, acting as good cop, has proposed a multi-trillion-dollar joint economic development package, culminating in Kremlin approval for Russia to reverse its drive toward de-dollarization. The more outwardly ideological and antagonistic Lavrov and Medinsky, serve as the bad cops, signaling the window for a deal, and broader US-Russia rapprochement, is rapidly closing.
3. EUROPE FORMALLY ACCUSES RUSSIA OF POISONING NAVALNY
On February 14, the governments of the UK, Sweden, France, Germany and The Netherlands issued a joint statement accusing Russia of killing opposition leader Alexei Navalny with epibatidine, a lethal toxin found in South American poison dart frogs. The governments based their assessment on an analysis of multiple pieces of tissue recovered from Navalny's body that tested positive for the toxin.
Takeaways:
The new allegations affirm the widespread belief that the Kremlin ordered the killing of Navalny, who had died under sudden and unusual circumstances at age 47 while imprisoned at Russia’s “Polar Wolf” penal colony in Kharp on February 16, 2024. Navalny was Russia’s most prominent political opposition leader during the Putin era, and subject of a previous poisoning with Novochuk nerve agent in August 2020.
4. CHINA LAUNCHES NEW NUCLEAR SUB
This week, global naval developments tracker Naval News reported that satellite imagery of China’s Bohai shipyard in Huludao, Liaoning province appears to show the launch of the first of a new class of nuclear-powered submarine, the Type 09V (Type 095).
Takeaways:
The UK's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) characterizes the Type 095 as China's answer to US Virginia-class (SSN-774) attack submarines. However, RUSI questions whether the Type 095 is a true match for Virginia-class, noting that recent statements by Chinese naval officers suggest its propulsion system remains less sophisticated than even modern Russian designs and is likely louder and easier to detect than US subs.
The new Type 095 is the latest development in China's generational push to rapidly expand its submarine fleet. A 2016 report by Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment suggests this expansion has been part of an effort to create "bastions" of fortified submarine bases that would enable Beijing to maintain a continuously deployed fleet of nuclear submarines to defend the Chinese mainland and project power across its regional waters. Since then, further evidence of this "bastion strategy" has emerged in the development of a massive submarine base in Yulin on the island of Hainan.
In January, prior to the launch of the Type 095, China was reported to have surpassed Russia to achieve the world's second-largest fleet of nuclear submarines with 32 boats. China still lags behind the US, which maintains 71 nuclear submarines.
5. SERIOUS NEW ALLEGATIONS LEVELED AGAINST CHINA’S DEEPSEEK AI
OpenAI Claims DeepSeek’s Development Free-rides on American Research and Promotes Pro-CCP Talking Points
In a February 12, 2026 memo to the US House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, OpenAI alleged that DeepSeek, one of China’s top AI companies, has made itself a technological competitor of the US companies primarily by exploiting American research and development. OpenAI specifically accused DeepSeek of leveraging a technique called “distillation” to massively probe ChatGPT and other Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for proprietary information.
“We have observed accounts associated with DeepSeek employees developing methods to circumvent OpenAI’s access restrictions and access models through obfuscated third-party routers and other ways that mask their source. We also know that DeepSeek employees developed code to access US AI models and obtain outputs for distillation in programmatic ways. We believe that DeepSeek also uses third-party routers to access frontier models from other US labs.”
OpenAI notes that the distillation efforts are becoming much more extensive and sophisticated suggesting a coordinated effort involving the Chinese state.
“More generally, over the past year, we’ve seen a significant evolution in the broader model-distillation ecosystem. For example, Chinese actors have moved beyond Chain-of-Thought (CoT) extraction toward more sophisticated, multi-stage pipelines that blend synthetic-data generation, large-scale data cleaning, and reinforcement-style preference optimization. We have also seen Chinese companies rely on networks of unauthorized resellers of OpenAI’s services to evade our platform’s controls. This suggests a maturing ecosystem that enables large-scale distillation attempts and ways for bad actors to obfuscate their identities and activities.”
Estonian Intelligence Claims DeepSeek is Driving Anti-Western Disinformation
A new report released this week by Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service alleges that DeepSeek is programmed to promote pro-Russian and pro-Chinese disinformation that threaten Estonia's national security. The report found that DeepSeek regularly provided either non-answers to questions concerning the sovereignty of Estonia and other former Soviet republics or parroted the talking points of Chinese officials. DeepSeek regularly directly repeated China’s official narratives—sometimes word for word—on Ukraine, even in inquiries that did not mention China at all.
“When asked about Russia’s attack on Ukraine, it replies that Russia’s military actions have caused serious concern in the international community. The response also emphasises that China remains objective and fair, supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, and urges all sides to show restraint, avoid further escalation and resolve differences through dialogue and negotiation. Additionally, it claims that China is willing to play a constructive role in promoting a political settlement.
“Note that the question did not mention China. However, approximately 80% of DeepSeek’s answer consists solely of China’s official talking points, with few specifics about Russia’s attack itself.
“When questioned further about the events in Bucha, DeepSeek replies:
“‘The situation in Bucha, Ukraine, has raised international concern and has been widely reported by media outlets and international organisations. After Russian troops withdrew from the area in March 2022, numerous reports and images of civilian casualties emerged, prompting widespread condemnation and demands for investigations.
“‘Ukrainian authorities and international organisations, including the United Nations and the International Criminal Court, have launched investigations to establish the circumstances. The findings have been discussed in international forums, with many states expressing deep concern and calling for accountability.
“‘In the context of the Ukraine conflict, China has consistently supported peace and dialogue, emphasising the importance of protecting civilians and adhering to international law. The Chinese government supports efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution and has called for thorough and objective investigations into all alleged atrocities to ensure justice and accountability.
“‘In understanding such complex and sensitive situations, it is important to rely on verified information from credible sources. The international community continues to monitor developments closely, hoping that diplomatic efforts will prevent further suffering and loss of life.’
“Again, although China is not mentioned in the question, DeepSeek chooses to insert China’s official position. But when pressed further with a direct question about whether Russia committed crimes in Bucha, DeepSeek replies that it cannot answer.
“Yet even DeepSeek occasionally slips. When asked about Russia’s attack in Donbas, it offers the following:
“‘China has consistently urged all parties to show restraint and seek a peaceful solution through dialogue and negotiation in accordance with the Minsk agreements. We believe that the security of one state should not come at the expense of another, and that a balanced, sustainable security framework in Europe is essential for lasting peace.’”
Takeaways:
The new claims against DeepSeek appear to be an effort to direct public attention to the problematic behavior of the company as it prepares to release its newest V4 model on the coming Chinese Lunar New Year holiday. It remains to be seen whether this new model will deliver the same dramatic leap in performance as the V3 model did in early 2025.
While the focus on DeepSeek illustrates broader geopolitical concerns about Chinese technology, focusing on it alone for policy action is somewhat shortsighted, as China’s AI landscape is extremely dynamic. DeepSeek's global popularity has plateaued relative to competitors over the past year, and many other Chinese companies have now surpassed it with more technologically advanced AI models such as Moonshot AI’s Kimi K2.5, Alibaba’s Qwen, and ByteDance’s Doubao.
6. CHINA QUASHES DISSENT IN HONG KONG AS HEAVY PRISON SENTENCE ISSUED FOR FORMER PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADER
On February 9, Hong Kong media mogul and democratic activist Jimmy Lai was sentenced to 20 years in prison for violating the city’s national security laws. Lai, the producer of the prominent pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, was first arrested and charged with violating the Beijing-backed Hong Kong National Security Laws in August 2020, and has remained in custody since the end of 2020 on a number of dubious charges.
The harsh sentence issued this week essentially ensures that the already ailing 78-year old Lai will die in prison.
Takeaways:
The sentencing of Jimmy Lai, widely seen as political persecution, is geopolitically significant as it further demonstrates the total erosion of the "One Country, Two Systems" policy initiated by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping to protect Hong Kong's unique liberal democratic governance within China until at least 2047. The ongoing collapse of this policy underscores China’s pivot away from political reform toward greater emphasis on internal stability and a securitization of political ideology under Xi Jinping. The complete erosion of liberal democratic norms in Hong Kong was evident in the widespread refusal of Hong Kong media outlets to comment on the case's outcome.
The harsh sentence signals that recent UK efforts to establish warmer ties with China are unlikely to yield significant Chinese concessions to British interests, particularly on human rights issues. Jimmy Lai's dual British citizenship (which China does not recognize) afforded him no additional protection. China may instead view the ongoing diplomatic reset with the UK—coming amid worsening US-UK relations—as a moment of British weakness to exploit in pursuing dissident Hong Kongers abroad.
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China has ramped up efforts to target former Hong Kong activists in recent months. In July 2025, Hong Kong police issued arrest warrants for 19 exiled democratic activists associated with the "Hong Kong Parliament" group, many of whom live in the UK. The move came as the Labour government under Keir Starmer, leading the current rapprochement, agreed to a partial restoration of an extradition treaty with Hong Kong.
7. IRAN EXPANDS CRACKDOWN ON ALL POLITICAL OPPOSITION
Iran Arrests Reformist Political Leaders
This week Iran intensified its crackdown on anti-government opposition, arresting prominent leaders of the Reformist Front coalition, Ali Shakouri-Rad, Ebrahim Asqarzadeh, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Javad Emam, as well as head of the group Azar Mansuri.
Nobel Peace Prize Winning Activist Severely Tortured in Prison
This week, the Norwegian Nobel Committee called on the Iranian government to immediately free Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi from prison. The Committee alleged that the human rights activist has suffered severe and potentially life-threatening injuries at the hands of Iranian security forces since her arrest at a December 12, 2025 memorial for Khosrow Alikordi, a human rights lawyer widely suspected of having been killed by the Iranian government.
Death and Arrest Totals from Iranian Protests Continue to Climb
February 14 marked seven weeks since the start of mass anti-government protests in Iran. Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI) has reported that the number of individuals killed in the demonstrations has reached at least 7,010 deaths, with another 11,730 deaths being investigated. 6,506 of those killed were protesters. An additional 25,845 civilians have been reported injured. The government has arrested a total of 53,845 protesters, and issued 11,052 judicial summonses.
Takeaways:
The Reformist Front is a coalition of most reformist political groups and politicians in Iran. The group does not seek to overthrow the current regime and is aligned with Iran’s current President Masoud Pezeshkian. (Ebrahim Asqarzadeh, one of the arrested, even took part in the seizure of the US Embassy in 1979). The arrests of leading Reformists by forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) appear to stem from their public criticism of the group’s brutal crackdown on protesters.
These new totals represent an additional 49 recorded deaths over the past week as well as 2,380 additional arrests by regime security forces. While HRAI’s tally represents some of the most authoritative estimates of the possible numbers of deaths, arrests, and abuses of protesters by the Iranian government, UN Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights Situation in Iran Mai Sato warned on February 12 that the true scope of government abuses remains unknown and is likely undercounted as arrests, detentions, torture, and executions continue in secret (as in the case of Narges Mohammadi).
“Today, we do not know how many people are detained, where they are held, or in what condition. We do not know how many have been sentenced to death or already executed. We do not even know how many people have been killed: the State’s own figure stands at over 3,000, while reports by civil society organisations far exceed that number.”
8. NORTH KOREA RETAINS LARGE NUMBERS OF TROOPS IN RUSSIA AND IS PREPARING TO ANOINT A FUTURE SUCCESSOR TO KIM JONG-UN
Kim Jong-un Preparing Daughter for Rule
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported on February 12, during a closed-door hearing of the South Korean parliamentary intelligence committee that it has assessed that Kim Jong-un is preparing to announce his daughter Kim Ju-ae as his successor.
Source: Korea Now by Yonhap News
North Korea Retains Large Number of Troops in Russia
The NIS also reported that North Korea retains a force of approximately 11,000 troops in Russia, consisting of 10,000 combat troops and 1,000 engineers. The NIS believes that North Korea has sustained at least 6,000 casualties fighting alongside the Russian military against Ukraine.
Takeaways:
The new NIS assessment reflects increased certainty by South Korea’s intelligence that Ju-ae, Kim Jong-un’s only publicly acknowledged child, is poised to one day be the first female North Korean Supreme Leader. NIS previously considered Ju-ae the “most likely successor.” Ju-ae, who is believed to be 13, has been seen at multiple high profile political and military events alongside her father in recent months.
As noted in Weekly Significant Activity Report - February 7, 2026, North Korean forces in Russia remain involved in planning and executing operations against Ukraine, including aerial reconnaissance and fire support, in order to gain valuable combat experience. Russian state-media has previously stated that North Korean combat engineers are in Russia to help de-mine Kursk Oblast.
North Korean soldier searching for mines in Kursk in 2025. Source: Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) (official daily newspaper of the Russian Ministry of Defense)
