Weekly Significant Activity Report - August 9, 2025
Trump and Putin set to meet in Alaska as Russia threatens new strategic missile deployments and conducts naval drills with China, Iran announces a shake up of its national security apparatus
This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries between August 2, 2025 - August 9, 2025.
Summary:
President Trump and President Putin set to meet on August 15 in Alaska, sparking speculation about the leaders’ motives and anxiety among Ukraine’s supporters.
The Russian military is attempting to restart riverine operations near Kherson as part of an effort to isolate and besiege southern sections of the city.
Russia claims it will no longer observe restrictions imposed on its missile forces by the Intermediate Range Forces treaty—a Cold War treaty Moscow has regularly violated since 2013.
Russia and China conduct joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan as part of the annual “Joint Sea” exercises.
A new report released this week alleges widespread surveillance and harassment of students and academics studying China in the United Kingdom.
Iran announces an overhaul of its national security leadership.
1. THE ALASKA ACCORDS?
Trump-Putin Summit Set for August 15
On August 8, US President Donald Trump announced that he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate a framework for ending the war in Ukraine.
Trump-Putin “Peace” Proposal Includes a Swapping of Territories
The exact details of a proposal President Trump and President Putin will discuss to end the war in Ukraine are still unclear. One detail being openly announced however is an exchange of territories. While hosting the signing of a peace framework between Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 8th, President Trump stated that a final peace will include both sides giving up territory they currently hold:
"Well you're looking at territory that's been fought over for three-and-a-half years... So we're looking at that but we're actually looking to get some back.
"We're going to get some back. We're going to get some switched. There will be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both."
The territories to be “swapped” appear to be Ukrainian held territory in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in exchange for Russian footholds in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.
Takeaways:
Speculation centers on Putin’s motive to negotiate now and President Trump’s eagerness to receive him. Both pessimists and optimists have cases to offer for their positions:
The Pessimistic Case - Putin is motivated to come to the negotiating table now because he believes that President Trump is desperate to receive a diplomatic victory. Putin interprets President Trump’s recent behavior outbursts as largely hollow threats and a sign of desperation since they have not been followed up by substantive new sanctions or arms packages to Ukraine. Putin may believe that President Trump is eager to avoid having to escalate his trade battles in the service of a foreign war that he is not interested in becoming entangled in. Putin may also assume that Trump sees Russia as a more valuable partner in confronting China than America’s current European allies, due to its size, location, and willingness to use military force for political ends. In this case Putin dangles the prospect of improved relations and access to Russian markets/resources as a means of getting the US to pressure Europe and Ukraine into making the most painful concessions they will endure to end the war.
The Optimist Case - Rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in Russia are forcing Putin to genuinely explore a ceasefire. Some of these deteriorating conditions have been discussed in previous Significant Activity Reports on July 19 and August 2. This week new economic woes for Russia have become clear, as the Russian government announced it blew through its entire annual budget in the first 7 months of the year. Fearing that significant cracks in the Russian economy will undermine Russia’s sole remaining theory of victory—that time is on its side in a war of attrition—Putin is looking to cement as much control over territory Russia controls as he can, while also looking to extract through diplomacy what his military could not win on the battlefield. In this case, renewed pressure on Russia’s trading partners such as India and China and new production hikes by OPEC+ have been key factors influencing Putin’s change in position.
The limited details that are available suggest the talks disproportionately favor Russian interests and should be viewed with pessimism.
While Putin may indeed be incentivized to more seriously explore options for peace talks, there is no evidence that he has given up his maximalist war aims. Putin has offered no concessions and the US President has largely held back on moves which would dramatically change the Russian leader’s calculus.
The exclusion of President Zelensky from the summit, reinforces Russian narratives that the Ukrainian leader lacks the legitimacy necessary to conduct negotiations.
The upfront discussions of territorial swaps, a far more sensitive issue than de facto recognition of the front line, subordinates Ukrainian sovereignty to great power machinations. Further, the Ukrainian held territory to be exchanged is far larger than that held by Russia. It would put cities under Russian occupation that Russia would otherwise struggle to seize through military force.
2. THE RUSSIAN MILITARY ATTEMPTING TO BESIEGE KHERSON
Russia Destroys Key Bridge in Kherson
On August 2, the Russian military bombed a key bridge connecting the Korabelniy district of Kherson with the city center. The Korabelniy district is separated from the rest of Kherson by the Kosheva river, a tributary of the Dnipro river.
Source: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Russian Military Prepares for a Renewed Riverine Campaign along the Dnipro River
The Ukrainian military reported in multiple media outlets, including the Kyiv Independent and Suspilne, that it assessed that Russia would intensify its efforts to seize islands along the Dnipro River in order to increase pressure on Kherson. Russia had made several costly reconnaissance operations to test Ukraine’s defenses along the river in recent weeks, and is preparing to launch further probes.
Takeaways:
Russia is likely to increase its pressure on Kherson but does not have the capacity to mount a major offensive across the Dnipro River. Instead Russia is attempting to divide the attention of the Ukrainian military from its main effort in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Seizing small islands along the Dnipro will help Russia complicate efforts to draw a clear line of contact in the event of a ceasefire by developing a Russian presence within the river way as opposed to on a distinct bank. An island foothold will give Russia an improved position to threaten commerce along the mouth of the Dnipro. Both are forms of leverage Russia will use to continue to threaten Kherson, which it illegally annexed in September 2022, but has failed to seize and hold.
3. RUSSIA THREATENS MAJOR NEW MISSILE DEPLOYMENTS
End of Moratorium on Intermediate Range Missiles
This week Russia announced that it would no longer observe restrictions on the deployment of intermediate range missiles. The restrictions were previously imposed on both the US and Russia as part of the Cold War era Intermediate Range Forces (INF) Treaty.
Russia is Preparing to Test Nuclear Cruise Missile
An analysis by The Barents Observer, identified several signs that the Russian military planned a new test launch of its experimental nuclear-armed and nuclear-powered cruise missile—the Burevestnik. The report indicated that a test was likely between August 7-12 due to regional airspace closures and air and maritime assets positioned in the area.
Takeaways:
Russia’s announcement that it would stop observing restrictions on its missiles comes days after Putin announced that the country would begin mass producing Oreshnik medium range ballistic missiles and would deploy them to Belarus by the end of the year.
The new threats don’t represent a fundamental change in Russian behavior. Russia had long violated the Intermediate Range Forces treaty. Its violations, dating back to at least 2013, caused the US to formally withdraw from the treaty in August 2019. Russia’s Iskander missiles, have long been known to possess capabilities that violate the treaty. Russia has launched hundreds of Iskander missiles at Ukrainian cities since February 2022. Oreshnik medium range ballistic missiles, which Russia used in combat last fall (and has repeatedly threatened to attack European cities with since), violate the treaty as well.
The Burevestnik nuclear cruise missile test is likely to reinforce the menace of Russia’s threats. The weapon itself, which has been in development for years, also violates the former INF treaty.
Beyond threats, the actual utility of the weapon is highly questionable, given the high cost of its development and potential unreliability. A 2019 test of the Burevestnik ended in a catastrophic failure resulting in radiation leak that caused several deaths.
4. RUSSIA AND CHINA CONDUCT JOINT NAVAL DRILLS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN
Ships from the Chinese and Russian navies concluded 3-days of naval exercises on August 6. The “Joint Sea 2025” military exercises were conducted in the Peter the Great Gulf of the Sea of Japan near the Russian city of Vladivostok from August 3-6. The drills featured two guided-missile destroyers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, the Shaoxing and Urumqi, alongside Russian anti-submarine destroyer the Admiral Tributs and a corvette, the Gromky.
At least one diesel submarine of the Russian Pacific Fleet served as opposing forces in the drill.
Source: CCTV (Chinese state media) on YouTube
Takeaways:
The drills appear to be designed to showcase the strength of Russian and Chinese military ties amid pressure by the US and EU on China to curtail trade of dual use items which have helped support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
The emphasis on anti-submarine warfare in the exercises is notable because the training follows an August 1 declaration by President Trump repositioning nuclear submarines as a response to veiled nuclear threats by former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. Any connection is likely coincidental. Drills of this scale would have been planned long before August 1, and the “Joint Sea” exercises are an annual occurrence. Russian and Chinese state media may have nonetheless played up this element of the drills to emphasize the connection.
The drills are the latest in an expanding Chinese naval presence in waters near Japan. This summer China’s two aircraft carrier task forces conducted drills in the vicinity of Japan’s southern islands including Okinawa, Iwo Jima, and Minamitori. Chinese nationalists have long demanded increasing pressure on Japan to avenge the country of wrongs inflicted on it by Japanese forces in the Second World War. Disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, located near Taiwan, remain a significant source of tension between the two nations. China has leveraged its recent carrier operations to challenge Japan's sovereignty claims over other territories, including Okinotori Island.
Joint naval drills with Russia, which also has its own territorial disputes with Japan over the northern Kuril Islands, accentuate China's efforts to compel Tokyo to submit to its growing regional dominance.
5. CHINA STEPPING UP SURVEILLANCE OF BRITISH UNIVERSITIES
A new report released this week by the group UK-China Transparency found widespread, and apparently CCP endorsed, pressure, surveillance, and harassment of British students and academics studying China in the United Kingdom.
The report also found pervasive surveillance of Chinese international students by their peers:
“One respondent stated that their Chinese students had confided in him that they had been asked to spy on campus events by Chinese police. Another scholar stated that they were told by Chinese students that surveillance is omnipresent and students are interviewed by officials when they return to China.”
Takeaways:
The report is the latest in a growing body of evidence suggesting an ongoing United Front Work campaign by the Chinese government targeting universities in the West. The core elements of this United Front influence campaign includes: policing the actions of overseas Chinese students; using legal, financial, and public opinion pressure on scholars and institutions to cancel research and instruction on sensitive subjects; using similar pressure to obtain intellectual property (particularly on advanced technology) or to alter research findings favorable to Chinese interests.
6. MAJOR SHAKEUP OF IRANIAN NATIONAL SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT
New Defense Council Announced
This week Iran announced the creation of a new Defense Council for the country. The Defense Council will lead a revamp of Iran’s national security establishment in the wake of the 12-Day war with the US and Israel.
The first members appointed to the new Defense Council are seasoned members of the national security establishment and current or former Revolutionary Guard Corps Officers. Names so far announced are Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, Ali Shamkhani, Ali Larijani.
Ali Larijani Appointed Head of Iranian National Security Council
Veteran Iranian diplomat Ali Larijani has succeeded his fellow Defense Council member Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, as the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council.
Ali-Akbar Ahmadian Will Stand Up New Strategic Projects Unit
On August 6, Iran’s President appointed Ali-Akbar Ahmadian as the head of a new agency the “Iranian Headquarters for National and Strategic Projects Development.” The exact nature of this agency is still vague with press releases providing the following details:
“The newly formed headquarters aims to foster unity between the government and the public, remove barriers to citizen participation—including Iranians abroad—and attract domestic and international investors. It will also mobilize the country’s intellectual and elite communities to achieve key strategic goals.”
Takeaways:
The new Defense Council will be tasked with a wholesale reevaluation of Iran’s national security priorities in the wake of major setbacks inflicted on its nuclear program and proxy forces. The exact scope of its duties is unclear.
The council is intended to also help streamline national security decision making to avert the paralysis which overtook Iranian institutions after Israeli decapitating strikes in the 12-Day War. However, IranWire has noted that there have been some concerns raised in the Iranian parliament that the powers of the new Defense Council overlap those of existing institutions, and may add to confusion over decision making authority.
The creation of a new institution to revitalize Iran’s national security establishment may also be motivated by a desire to stabilize institutions ahead of a coming succession of the Ayatollah. 86 year old Ayatollah Khamenei has accelerated succession planning in the wake of the 12-Day War. Developing a new Defense Council for long-term security planning may be part of a strategy to maintain the continuity of leadership of the nation’s armed forces, regional allies, and defense industry ahead of the country’s second succession.