Weekly Significant Activity Report - December 20, 2025
This week’s analysis highlights some of the most significant geopolitical developments involving America’s adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—between December 13 - December 20, 2025.
Summary:
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a bellicose annual “Direct Line” call-in show suggesting little interest in ending the war.
Reuters reported that Chinese scientists made significant progress developing key technology needed to make advanced semiconductors.
China’s years-long crackdown on autonomous governance in Hong Kong culminated in the disbanding of the Special Administrative Region’s oldest democratic party, and conviction of pro-democracy leader Jimmy Lai.
China announced the successful first test flight of the CH-7, a stealthy strategic drone capable of performing long-range reconnaissance.
Iranian authorities are preparing for ideological warfare to defend the regime amid growing public discontent, intensifying Western pressure, and the looming succession of the Supreme Leader.
1. PUTIN DELIVERS BELLIGERENT ANNUAL PUBLIC ADDRESS
Russian President Vladimir Putin conducted his annual “Direct Line” call-in show on December 19. Putin spoke for approximately five hours fielding questions on a number of subjects. In the process Putin provided insights into the Kremlin’s policy priorities, concerns, and its stance toward the ongoing peace negotiations with the US and Ukraine.
Notable New Claims:
Putin claims new justification for the invasion of Ukraine—a lack of respect by Europe: “You said there would be new special military operations? There won't be any if you treat us with respect and respect our interests, just as we've always tried to respect yours. Unless you cheat us, like you did with NATO's eastward expansion.”
Putin acknowledges that economic growth is slowing but claims it is all part of the plan: “Regarding this year's one percent economic growth rate, this is a deliberate move by the government, the Central Bank, and the country's entire leadership, related to inflation targeting. And it should be noted that, overall, this objective is being met, as the goal was set to reduce inflation to at least six percent. However, by all indications, by the end of the year, it will be below six percent—5.7–5.8 percent. But the slowdown in economic growth is a deliberate step, the price paid for maintaining the quality of the economy and macroeconomic indicators.”
Putin claims that Russia and the US are on the same side against NATO’s European states: “The new National Security Strategy doesn't list Russia as an enemy or a target, yet the NATO Secretary General is preparing for war with us. What's this? Can you even read? How can you aim NATO for war with Russia if the main NATO country doesn't consider us an adversary or an enemy?”
Takeaways:
The key portion of Putin’s address was answering questions about the state of the war in Ukraine and US-mediated peace negotiations. Putin provided a now familiar line coming from the Kremlin: that Russia didn’t start the war in Ukraine—which isn’t a real war—but is ready for war with Europe if its demands to seize territory in Ukraine are not respected. This condensed version of Russia’s contradictory narrative about the war provides soothing explanations for a variety of stakeholders the Kremlin is trying to balance in order to continue to keep the country mobilized and the international community divided on how to resolve the war. It portrays Russia as the primary victim of the war, which is defending reasonable and even noble interests against military and spiritual encroachments from a malign Europe. It acknowledges that progress has been slow because Russia is conducting a “special military operation” rather than a true war. It also provides a justification for Russia to continue and expand the war or restart it after an interim settlement.
Putin aims to satisfy impatient nationalists by suggesting Russia has multiple paths to victory, including diplomacy, incremental territorial gains, and future special military operations. He seeks to reassure anxious segments of the Russian public who want to take pride in the country’s military accomplishments without bearing the war's mounting costs. He also wants to feed the confirmation bias and resentments of Russia’s apologists in the West who are sympathetic to the Kremlin’s grievances.
2. CHINA DEVELOPS KEY CHIP MAKING TECHNOLOGY
On December 17, Reuters reported that a secret Chinese lab in Shenzhen created a rudimentary copy of an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine in early 2025. EUV lithography is a key technology needed to etch microscopic transistors on advanced semiconductors. The report indicates that China has potentially crossed a key threshold toward domestic fabrication of the world’s most advanced chips.
Takeaways:
The report shows significant progress made by Chinese scientists in EUV lithography, which is a major achievement in any case as it is among the most advanced technologies ever produced. However, the conclusions the report draws are slightly misleading. First, the machine described in the article does not represent a true prototype as it cannot produce chips. The Chinese team hopes to use the machine to make its first prototype chips by 2028, though some experts are skeptical that this is achievable. Second, the machine appears to be a reverse engineered copy of an ASML machine, rather than a truly domestic breakthrough. As a result, the teams of scientists working on the machine may not have yet mastered the underlying knowledge in multiple fields needed to make continuous improvements to the technology that are required to keep up with the relentless pace of change in the manufacturing cutting-edge chips. This means even the 2028 deadline (or later) could still be a moving target. Those additional years of catching up to present technology is not insignificant as the future of chipmaking is evolving very quickly and by 2028 new technological bottlenecks may either layer on top of EUV lithography, or replace the technology in the production of the world’s most advanced chips.
Over the past year, China has repeatedly claimed to have made breakthroughs in achieving a domestic AI technology stack. Some of these breakthroughs have been genuine and impressive, while others have been exaggerated or inaccurate. The claims of repeated “secret” breakthroughs raise questions about whether they are part of China’s united front work to pressure Western governments and companies to make concessions to remain in the Chinese market for fear of being permanently surpassed by domestic competitors. As noted in last week's Significant Activity Report, DeepSeek's claims about optimizing for domestic AI chips appear inflated and may have been part of a campaign to reduce US restrictions on the advanced Nvidia chips the company actually relies on.
3. CHINA FURTHER ERODES “ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS” POLICY FOR HONG KONG
Hong Kong’s Oldest Pro-Democracy Party Disbands
On December 14, Hong Kong’s Democratic Party, the Special Administrative Region’s oldest democratic political party, disbanded after more than 30 years of activism.
Pro-Democracy Leader Jimmy Lai Convicted of Violations of the City’s National Security Law
On December 15, a Hong Kong court convicted Jimmy Lai, Hong Kong businessman and founder of the highly influential pro-democracy paper Apple Daily, of violating Hong Kong’s national security law. Because of Lai’s age and declining health, any sentence he receives could be a life sentence.
Takeaways:
Both events this week are lagging indicators of the multiyear dismemberment of the "one country, two systems" policy that preserved Hong Kong's autonomous, liberal democratic governance after the 1997 British handover. While Beijing's campaign to suppress the city's democratic movement may have addressed internal stability concerns, it will likely deepen international suspicions that China aims to crush democratic governance in Taiwan and override democracy and human rights elsewhere when they conflict with its interests. Recent assertive foreign policy shifts by Japan and the Philippines toward China reflect these growing concerns.
4. CHINA CONDUCTS TEST FLIGHT OF NEW STEALTH DRONE
On December 15, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) announced that it had successfully completed the first test flight for the CH-7 long-range stealth drone. The drone will serve as a reconnaissance platform capable of surveilling strategic targets from high altitude for long periods of time.
Source: CCTV on Youtube
Takeaways:
The CH-7 is one of several new strategic drones the Chinese military and Chinese defense companies have tested in recent months. On November 11, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force announced the flight test of another strategic drone, the GJ-11 “Sharp Sword.”
The test flight is a major step forward for the CH-7, which has been in development for over eight years. According to Janes, the design of the aircraft has been revised multiple times due to stability issues.
5. IRAN PREPARES FOR COGNITIVE WARFARE TO COMBAT POTENTIAL UNREST
Iran Creating Massive Government Think Tank to Sell Regime Ideas
This week, IranWire reported that the Iranian government has enlisted as many as 40,000 seminary students and conservative opinion leaders to support the Balagh-e-Mobin Combined Warfare headquarters. The headquarters will combat Western cognitive warfare aimed at destabilizing the country following the 12-Day War with Israel and the US and the return of UN sanctions.
Ayatollah Khamenei Warns of Propaganda War Fought Against Country
In a December 15 speech in Alborz province, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned his audience that the primary threat to Iran posed by the US and Israel is not military action but rather a coordinated information campaign aimed at delegitimizing the country's theocratic government.“The enemy’s objective in our country is to gradually turn people away from the revolution, its goals and its memory.”
Takeaways:
Iranian leaders are increasingly concerned that the country’s declining regional influence, economic deterioration, environmental crises, and other domestic pressures have created an opening for adversaries to destabilize its political system. As discussed in the Weekly Significant Activity Report - December 13, 2025, Iranian security forces have attempted to suppress unrest since the 12-Day War through tens of thousands of arrests and hundreds of executions.
However, mass repression alone cannot ensure regime stability during the looming succession of the 86-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei. Without a clear succession plan for the Supreme Leader, the regime must seek alternative means of legitimacy. The mass mobilization of scholars and conservative intellectuals appears designed to provide an ideological framework that can sustain the system through this transition.
Brilliant breakdown on the EUV lithography reverse-engineering. The point about this being a moving target by 2028 is key here becuase even if China nails the tech by then, the bottlenecks will have shifted. I've seen similar patterns in compute infrastrucure races where catching up just means chasing new barriers. What's less discussed is how this uncertainty might push Beijing toward more aggressive timelines on Taiwan since the semiconductor leverage window could close faster than most analysts expect.