The Trump Pivot Against Russia
The Trump White House's change in policy toward Russia was driven by growing political pressure, miscalculations by China and Russia, and smart strategic moves by Ukrainian and European leaders
On July 14, President Trump announced that the US would be aggressively increasing its military assistance to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. The announcement represents a major reversal from the policy the Trump Administration has favored since taking office in January, which emphasized rapprochement with Russia and reduced military assistance to Ukraine. The change in US policy was driven by a combination of domestic political pressure, clever strategic moves by European leaders, and miscalculations by China and Russia.
OVERVIEW:
The new White House policy announced today pivots on two key issues: sanctions and the provision of military assistance to Ukraine.
Sanctions
Trump declared that the US would impose 100% tariffs on Russia’s trading partners if Russia did not agree to a negotiated end to the war within 50 days.
"We're going to be doing secondary tariffs if we don't have a deal within 50 days. It’s very simple. And they'll be at 100%.”
Military Assistance
Trump further announced that the US would manufacture weapons, which NATO’s European nations would then purchase. Mark Rutte, NATO’s Secretary General confirmed that these weapons would then be transferred to Ukraine.
“It will mean that Ukraine can get its hands on really massive numbers of military equipment both for air defense, but also missiles, ammunition, etc.”
The US will also facilitate the supply of 17 Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, by replacing systems in a partner country and presumably providing security guarantees in the interim.
“We have one country that has 17 Patriots getting ready to be shipped. They're not going to need them for that. So we're going to work a deal where the 17 will go or a big portion of the 17 will go to the war.”
BIGGER PICTURE:
Several factors contributed to this policy reversal, including renewed bipartisan pressure on the White House following a recent pause in military aid to Ukraine. However, the most significant catalyst for change may have been strategic miscalculations by Russia and its allies.
Russia’s Escalating Bombing Campaign an Embarrassing Rebuke of Trump Administration Policies
The Russian military has launched the most intense campaign of airstrikes of the war in 2025. The largest nightly attacks on Ukrainian cities by Russian drones, missiles, and glide bombs have all occurred since President Trump’s inauguration.
Many of the largest individual attacks occurred shortly after US-organized ceasefire negotiations and phone calls between the American and Russian leaders, providing an embarrassing rebuke of the administration’s strategy to mediate the conflict. The worsening attacks created political pressure both from Democrats and within the Republican party to toughen the administration’s policy toward Russia.
Hardline Diplomacy by China and Russia Drives Europe and the US Back Together
July 2 - China Tells Europe it Wants Russian Victory and European Instability
In a July 2 meeting with Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for the European Union (EU), China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi revealed that Beijing’s strategic interests were deeply threatening to those of Europe. Wang Yi suggested that China cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine and that China directly benefited from a prolonged war in Ukraine distracting the US from a pivot to the Indo-Pacific.
This diplomatic error was compounded by aggressive actions taken by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy against the European Union’s “Operation Aspides” supporting free navigation in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks. As Chinese and European diplomats met on July 2, a Chinese warship operating in the vicinity of its overseas base in Djibouti, targeted a German surveillance plane with a powerful laser.
These events, along with a classified report by the German government alleging Chinese complicity in 80% of Russian sanctions evasion, appear to have marked a rapid deterioration in what was a warming relationship between China and Europe in response to US trade pressures.
China’s menacing behavior provided an opportunity to merge European and American views of top international security issues. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte seized this opportunity during a July 7 interview with the New York Times. Rutte suggested in the interview that the current state of affairs suggested that China would coax Russia to attack Europe during a future invasion of Taiwan to create a strategic dilemma for the West.
July 3 - Putin Tells Trump He Plans to Escalate War
In a phone call with President Trump on July 3, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would intensify its summer offensive in eastern Ukraine. Trump allegedly told French President Emmanuel Macron shortly after the call that he was alarmed that Putin wanted to seize more of Eastern Ukraine and potentially expand his territorial claims.
Hours after the phone call, Putin launched the largest air strikes of the war on Kyiv. The attacks were seen as a symbolic thumb in the eye to America on its Independence Day, which increased pressure from conservative media to take decisive action.
The phone call with Putin and subsequent attacks appeared to be a turning point for Trump. A call between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky that followed the attacks on July 4, discussed US supplies of air defense systems to Ukraine. The conversation was judged by the Ukrainian leader as the best ever between the two leaders.
"This was probably the best conversation in all this time, it was maximally productive. We discussed the topic of air defenses. I am grateful for the readiness to help."
Trump later announced during a cabinet meeting on July 8 that he no longer believed that Putin was negotiating in good faith.
"We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth. He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless."
Russia Emphasizes the Threat its Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships Pose to US Interests
The “bullshit” coming from the Russian leader that has incensed President Trump is not limited to Ukraine. While Russia has reciprocated recent warm gestures by the US it has also doubled down on actions that threaten US global interests, including reaffirming its support to US adversaries China, North Korea, and Iran.
Several recent Russian actions likely helped dispel remaining wishful thinking within the administration that a “reverse-Kissinger” move that separated Russia from China and turned it into a key US strategic partner in Asia was possible.
July 12 - Russia Indirectly Threatens US Alliances in East Asia
From July 11 to July 13, North Korea hosted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for a “second strategic dialogue” which reaffirmed the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. Russia’s top diplomat blamed the US for tensions on the Korean peninsula and warned that drills between the US, Japan and South Korea implied hostility toward Russia due to its alliance with North Korea.
“We warn against exploiting these ties to build alliances directed against anyone, including North Korea and, of course, Russia.”
July 13 - Russia Bungles Opportunity to Cooperate with US on Iran Nuclear Deal
With the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites in June, the Trump administration has now committed to a policy of no uranium enrichment for Iran. Trump appears to have attempted to enlist Russian support for a peace deal with Iran that would prohibit the country from enriching uranium. On July 13, the Kremlin threw cold water on suggestions it was interested in any plan which dismantled Iran’s nuclear program, calling them a “political defamation campaign.”
IMPLICATIONS:
Trump and Rutte Reconcile “America First” with Plan for Long-term Assistance to Ukraine and Cooperation with Europe
The announcement effectively rubber stamps an indefinite supply of US military assistance to Ukraine. By highlighting a profit motive for US industry, Trump signals that the US would benefit from scaling more, not fewer, sales of military aid to “NATO.” The warm ties highlighted between Trump and Rutte during the announcement also provide additional reassurance of a continued US commitment to the NATO alliance.
NATO Secretary General Rutte for his part has reciprocated by helping to reconceive the threat posed to the transatlantic alliance as a joint one posed by both China and Russia. He validated the concerns of the US “prioritizers,” like Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, who want adequate stocks of weapons to deter a Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. Europe's financing of American weapons for Ukraine reassures the US that the transatlantic alliance will support America's pivot to Asia by funding the defense industrial expansion needed to deter China. Combined with Rutte’s earlier remarks, the scheme appears as an indirect but unmistakable rebuke of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s July 2 warning to Europe that China was backing Russia to tie down the US.
Clock is Ticking for Russia’s Partners and the Russian Economy
The 50-day waiting period for secondary sanctions may seem like a stay of execution, but the window is effectively a ticking clock that will force Russia’s partners to dump their trade completely or pressure Moscow to settle the war. Some countries like China, North Korea, Iran, Belarus, Burkina Faso, and Venezuela are unlikely to waver in their support for Russia. However, many countries will be hard-pressed to choose continued trade with Russia over better trade terms with the US.
Fracturing Russia's support base could cripple its already fragile economy. Top Russian officials and business leaders have become increasingly vocal in recent weeks that the country is headed for serious economic turbulence. High interest rates are stifling credit in the country but are needed to fight high inflation. These effects are combining with the potential for a long-term demographic disaster resulting from high battlefield casualties. Early symptoms of this looming economic calamity can be seen in Russia’s decision to stop publishing population data, and in the influx of Chinese experts and North Korean labor to support Russian industry.
The effectiveness of these secondary sanctions will ultimately depend on carve-outs, which Trump has been shown to frequently grant.