SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY REPORT (SIGACTS)

Week of May 3 - 10, 2025

This week's analysis highlights some of the most significant news concerning America's adversaries.

CHINESE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY ON DISPLAY DURING INDIA-PAKISTAN CLASHES:

Pakistan inflicts losses on Indian Air Force

Some early reporting suggests that Pakistan’s air defenses, bolstered by Chinese J-10 aircraft inflicted significant losses on the first wave of Indian air attacks this week, in what has been dubbed one of the largest aerial battles in recent history. Indian losses allegedly included advanced French Rafaele jets.

China is by far Pakistan’s top defense supplier. Accounting for over 80% of its arms imports in recent years. This makes the ongoing fight between Pakistan and India a referendum on the efficacy of Chinese defense technology.

Takeaways:

Though some analysts are already making judgments, and Chinese defense stocks have risen in response to perceived successes, it is still too early to render a verdict on the superiority of Western or Chinese systems. The full scope of the battle damage inflicted is not clear and it is too soon to assess whether human or technological systems played a more significant role in deciding the results of combat.

Another complicating factor in making early judgments in this conflict is that Pakistan and India both employ a mix of military technology from a variety of countries. This includes systems from NATO and China, but also from Russia, Israel and others. It will take time to parse out what parts of the kill-chain for each military worked or not.

RUSSIA FORMING NEW STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS DURING VICTORY DAY CELEBRATIONS IN MOSCOW:

Putin and Venezuela’s Maduro sign comprehensive strategic partnership treaty

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro signed a treaty of Strategic Partnership between their two countries. The treaty between Russia and Venezuela follows similar comprehensive strategic partnership treaties that Russia has recently signed with Iran and North Korea.

Brazil’s Lula proposes closer partnership with Russia

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visited Moscow for the May 9^th Victory Day celebration and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Lula pitched forming a closer “strategic partnership” between Russia and Brazil in the “military, space, scientific, economic, educational spheres, and above all the energy issue.” Lula expressed significant interest in working with Russia to develop small modular nuclear reactors.

Takeaways:

Vladimir Putin is eager to show the world that after three years at war, the Russia military remains capable, and that the Russian nation remains unified and far from isolated. The new signed treaty with Venezuela and proposed partnership with Brazil will be much less militarily significant than those with Iran and North Korea, though they share a similar name of “comprehensive strategic partnership.” The blurring of distinctions between its allies is likely a deliberate effort to bolster Moscow’s claim to global leadership and draw comparisons between Russia’s loose partnerships and the more comprehensive and institutionalized NATO alliance.

NORTH KOREA CONTINUES TO TEST AND SCALE UP ITS CONVENTIONAL MILITARY CAPABILITIES:

Kim Jong Un calls for increased artillery production

On May 7th, Kim Jong Un called for increased production of artillery shells, while conducting an inspection tour of a munitions factory. The call for increased production comes as North Korea serves as a major supplier of Russia’s artillery ammunition.

North Korea shows off new tanks amid Kim factory tour

A May 3rd tour of a tank factory by Kim Jong Un highlighted the country’s advancements in the development of indigenously designed armored vehicles. The vehicles displayed purportedly included new versions of its Cheonma-2 tanks.

New North Korean short range ballistic missile test

North Korea launched multiple ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan from a test site near the city of Wonsan in the morning of May 7. This was the first missile test by North Korea in 2 months.

Takeaways:

This is a continuation of long running North Korean behavior. The timing of this latest round of factory inspections, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, may signify a sales pitch to Russia as stocks of its own equipment, particularly armored vehicles continue to run down in Ukraine.

IRAN FLEXES MUSCLES BEFORE US TALKS:

Iranian Revolutionary Guard shows off underground drone base

IRGC Commander-in-Chief Major General Hossein Salami and IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri attended the unveiling of a new underground base for military drones in the country’s south in Hormozgan Province. Footage of the event showed hundreds of drones, and footage of US naval vessels allegedly captured by Iran’s new domestically produced stealth drone, the Mohajer-6.

Iran sending new missile launchers to Russia

Reuters reported on May 9^th that Iran plans to send Fath-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia for the first time. The exact number of launchers is not known.

Takeaways:

While the provision of ballistic missile launchers to Russia would represent an escalation of Iranian involvement in the Ukraine war, an enormous number of systems would be needed to make a meaningful difference in the war. Instead, the missiles, along with the unveiling of the IRGC drone base, are a means of reasserting a degree of military strength ahead of nuclear talks with the US. Iran has suffered repeated humiliations by American and Israeli strikes on its allies and parrying of Iranian strikes on Israel.

The new drone base may be an attempt to boost the morale of IRGC forces and show that Iran has developed new power projection capabilities which it has not yet tapped. Missile shipments represent a form of leverage Iran can use in negotiations, which can be escalated or traded away in response to US actions.

RUSSIA ISSUES TEMPORARY “CEASEFIRE” FOR VICTORY DAY CELEBRATIONS, PREPARES NEXT ROUND OF STRIKES

Russia invokes, repeatedly violates ceasefire

Russian President Vladimir Putin officially invoked a 3-day ceasefire between May 8 – 11 corresponding with the celebration of the WWII allies’ victory over Nazi Germany. The Russian military has reportedly violated its ceasefire numerous times since its announcement, while alleging similar violations by Ukraine.

Russia closing airspace around Oreshnik launch site next week

Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) issued by the US Department of Defense has reported that Russia is closing airspace around its Kapustin Yar military base from May 12 – 13. The Kapustin Yar military base was the point of origin of November’s Oreshnik ballistic missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

US Embassy in Ukraine issues air attack warning

On May 9^th, the US Embassy in Ukraine issued a warning of a “potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next several days.” The embassy has repeatedly issued similar warnings in the past.

Takeaways:

Russia’s ceasefire was issued to both deter Ukraine from launching strikes to interrupt its Victory Day celebrations and placate US demands for progress toward a sustainable peace. The Russian military repeatedly violated this ceasefire along the line of contact in response to alleged provocations by Ukraine, as it has with previous ceasefires. Russian “ceasefires” in practice only appear to refer to abstentions from mass strikes on major Ukrainian cities. New airspace closures near Kapustin Yar indicate that Russia is threatening a significant resumption in mass long range strikes on Ukrainian population centers beginning soon after the ceasefire ends.