Out of Office and Update

Hi, this is Dan White,

Due to overseas travel, there will be a two-week break from Weekly Significant Activity Reports. I will be in Bosnia and Herzegovina to attend the Sarajevo Security Conference 2026 where I have the privilege of joining a distinguished panel to discuss the Future of NATO and the Western Balkans.

The next Weekly Significant Activity Report will be on September 12. The Homeland Security Brief for August will be released in the first week of September as well.

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NEW EXTERNAL PUBLICATION:

In the meantime, please check out this essay I co-authored with Gabriella Calder in Small Wars Journal entitled “Russia’s Baltic Maritime Insurgency”

This article is our contribution to maritime insurgency theory, whose contemporary study has focused mostly on China’s actions in the South China Sea. We make the case that Russia is conducting a similar water-borne insurgency in the Baltic Sea involving an increasingly militarized shadow fleet. We contend that the Kremlin’s use of this force to collect intelligence and disrupt regional commerce and connectivity goes beyond the defense of its oil trade and opportunistic attacks and has the characteristics of a campaign to alter the balance of power in the region and to set favorable conditions for a possible future land campaign against the Baltic States.

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UPDATES:

You will also notice some changes coming to OPFOR Journal:

More Focused and Organized Weekly Significant Activity Reports:

When I started last May I had expansive ideas of covering all the ways in which China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea build and wield geopolitical power across the board. I have found that this is a noble aspiration, but one that is very difficult for one person with limited time to achieve effectively. So, I have continued to narrow the focus of what is significant in weekly reports. As you might have noticed, Weekly Significant Activity Reports now sort significant activities into overarching categories based on their relevance to geopolitical flashpoints. Right now these are:

1. US War with Iran - Significant Activity Related to the US-Iran War

2. The Eastern Front - Significant Activity Related to the War in Ukraine and Russian threats to NATO

3. Western Pacific Flashpoints - Significant Activity in the Western Pacific and Taiwan

One or two additional categories will likely be introduced in the near future, including one dedicated to developments in the nuclear and strategic weapons programs of each country.

A Refreshed Look:

Thanks to the generosity of paid subscribers, I have bought a membership to Canva Pro, which I will be putting to use updating OPFOR Journal’s branding. Below is a before and after for changes to Weekly Significant Activity Reports and Homeland Security Briefs.

Old and new branding for Weekly Significant Activity Reports. The new branding features a historical map of combat from the Korean War between a combined force of US and South Korean troops against North Korea and China near Wonju. Image source: Ebb and Flow, November 1950-July 1951, Billy C. Mossman, US Army Center for Military History, CMH Pub 20-4 GPO S/N: 008-029-00210-8

Old and new branding for Homeland Security Briefs. The new branding features a new view of the US pictured in infrared from space. The image more clearly illustrates not only the entirety of the US homeland, but also the way it is knitted together by a vast network of critical infrastructure which features as a priority target for Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Image source: "Brilliance at Night: The Americas in Darkness", NASA, December 11, 2019, https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/brilliance-night-americas-darkness/

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